Coronovirus has an rFactor of 2-3 and it is airborne, which requires droplets from a host to come in contact with an uninfected person. But these droplets travel to the air and then will collect on a surface. They will not stay suspended in the air. Simply breathing next to a person who has the virus isn't enough for transmission.
By contrast, measles has an rFactor of 17, because it is an aerosol. It is 6x more contagious. And as an aeorsol, simply breathing next to a person who is infected is enough for you to contract the virus.
Airborne is not the same as aerosol.
Put another way. If there is a person infected in a house hold with coronavirus, not everyone is guaranteed to get it, because it is only airborne.
If someone has the measles in a house hold, and there is no vaccine, then everyone will get it, because it is an aerosol.
R0 is variable over time and describes the change in number of NEW cases.
IF new cases today are less than yesterday, the R0 must be <1 one incubation period ago. That doesn't mean that R0 wasn't different a month ago, or will be the same a month from now.
That's a big if. We don't have enough testing in place to determine that currently. The reported number of cases and the actual number of cases are not the same right now.
We certainly have enough information now. You don’t need to know the total number of infections to know the trend.
Positive cases have stayed roughly the same since April 4th while testing increased. For R0 to be greater than 1, we would have to be worse at testing.
> I think the point still stands unless you think we are identifying a lower proportion of infections
I do. https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d... indicates many areas of NYC are seeing more than 57% positive results; that likely indicates we're not even scratching the surface. We're simply not that good at identifying who to test.
By contrast, measles has an rFactor of 17, because it is an aerosol. It is 6x more contagious. And as an aeorsol, simply breathing next to a person who is infected is enough for you to contract the virus.
Airborne is not the same as aerosol.
Put another way. If there is a person infected in a house hold with coronavirus, not everyone is guaranteed to get it, because it is only airborne.
If someone has the measles in a house hold, and there is no vaccine, then everyone will get it, because it is an aerosol.