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Microsoft used to have one of the best media players around! Windows used to have built in streaming support from device to device. You could load up music on your personal PC and play it on your home theater through your Xbox360! Windows Media Player was huge, only eclipsed by Winamp at the time.

Eventually MS released the Zune app, which was also awesome but lacked many of the WMP features. (But it looked amazing!)

They also were huge in the ebook space for years before amzn sucked all the air out of the room.

They also tried to popularize a standards based in car stereo system a decade before car play became a thing, and the first Windows tablets were released in the 1990s!

Oh and they tried to make a smart TV box in 1999, because of course they did. (Nearly 20 years too early, oops!)



Microsoft had so many opportunities that they just failed to execute. How did they miss on everything?

Home servers

Media streaming

Smartphones

Touchscreens

Tablets

They even had media production with MSNBC.

All of this was available from Microsoft in the XP era. How did they fail at literally all of it? There has to be a lesson.


I call it the first mover disadvantage!

(I was there first hand to witness it again and again!)

Bill Gates is terrifyingly smart. He sees trends decades ahead. But knowing something is coming (smart TVs) does you no good without timing.

You build a first gen product, accrue mountains of legacy tech debt in the process (being first is hard! There is no one else to learn lessons from!) and then a competitor comes along and makes a V2 when the market is more ready and they can implement it better than you because they can learn from everything you did wrong (possibly also hiring half your team away).

Timing is equally important as product. Making a smart TV before widespread broadband adoption? Before streaming video had a flood of high quality content? Oops.

Real Player was doing streaming video in the 90s! Everyone knew it was the future, it was obviously the future! The future is now and the majority of video is streaming from a server somewhere!

Great idea, but ouch that timing. (That said, founders got rich anyway, and real video was a necessary step to where we are now!)


So what’s the lesson for future business leaders? Someone has to be first. What can a first mover do to get to that second generation product?


> So what’s the lesson for future business leaders? Someone has to be first.

Let it be someone else. Maybe spinoff promising new ideas where you can't follow others. If you can find ideas to be second on, look at old product annpuncements from companies that tend to be too early and shut down products that don't have engagement. Microsoft and Yahoo are good ones.

Or, do the new idea, patent the hell out of it, let it die, and when the idea comes around again, get some licensing revenue.

The problem with Microsoft being a first mover is they're too big. A small line of business is a problem for most big companies. It acrues too little customer oriented development to grow, because the numbers don't justify investment; but it acrues all the corporate cruft development and the product becomes hard to pivot under the weight of three rebrands.


> Let it be someone else.

But this can't work. Then why would anyone innovate? I reject the assertion that it's impossible to innovate and develop a viable product. My question is what makes a company able to do both?


Apple is the often sung master of this.

Jobs waited for the right time for mobile and tablets. Apple also waited for smart watches as well. Same goes for Car Play. They seemed to have ran out of patience waiting for AR/VR.0

There was a company called Kosmo (Kosmo?) during the first .com bubble. Basically door dash / Uber eats but way too early.


Sure but “be second” doesn’t help that first mover. What incentive is there to innovate if your product is doomed to fail? What can a company do to both innovate and develop a viable product?

Are the corporate structures and cultures necessary for this just that different?


First movers do sometimes win, Netflix, Uber, Amazon.

Also VCs have to invest their funds in something! :D

The key is matching innovation with timing. History is filled with great ideas done decades, or even a century, too early.


they only win when they're able to anti-competitively lock out their competitors by bundling

because their products are universally shit

see: Teams




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