Yes, agree very much. The energy war was a consequence that in a market economy it is almost impossible to choose options which aren't price optimal (cheap).
Germany gets a lot of flak for buying Russian gas cheaply the last 30 years in ever increasing volumes. But it seems strange to argue that Germany just should have bought gas from Qatar or the US for double the price from the start.
How should Germany have done that? Import tax on Russian gas? Laws preventing importing cheap gas from the east? Sounds a bit aggressive towards our big neighbor to the east.
No, I think the article is just plain wrong. Europe benefitted from cheap gas over the last decades and it will be somewhat affected by higher prices for this and next year, but it will accelerate the transition to renewables and strengthen nuclear in those countries in Europe where it is still an option. In the end it push Europe in the right direction.
This is what people miss. What is the opportunity cost of over-paying for gas for 30 years? By not over-paying, Germany was able to invest in its own economy, and it is now in a position to help Ukraine and complete its transition to renewables.
Germany's strategy is currently unpopular because the costs all happen at once, whereas people generally put up with small costs spread over a long time, but it would have been foolish to harm German economic growth while Putin could just sell his gas somewhere else and grow the Russian economy at a faster rate than Germany's.
One cost is that is directly funded the regime that is now invading a neighboring country, causing more burden on the current military budget as the populace demands support for them, and shoring up local defense budgets as it puts support to the fear that it may be needed at some point in the not-too-distant future.
You can't really say what would have happened, but if nobody purchased that cheap gas, I think it's safe to say the Russia of today would look very different, with that being a rather large part of the country's total exports.
There is no transition to renewables in a 20 year or less horizon. Europe will be wrecked economically and industrially if there is no negotiated end to this war, anything else is wishful thinking.
Why would you think so? To replace Gas for electricity for instance it seems to suffice to double wind and maybe quadruple solar. That is totally doable.
Everything on top would help reduce heating use of gas.
The major issue is that until then we are back to burning coal which is cheap but environmentally much worse than gas.
Last, your point on a negotiating end of the war is weird. Russia blew up their own pipelines. We are never going back to Russian gas in Germany in the near future. This war will be won on the battle field.
There is nothing about fracking in Germany in this article. Regarding "Russia blowing up their own pipelines", that makes zero strategic sense. The pipelines being an option played into Russia pressuring EU. That potential leverage going away is not really helping the Russians.
I see a lot of posts written from point-of-views that can only be described as outlandish, as they do not reflect the grim reality. I'd be surprised if full-scale riots in every major Northern European city are not the order of the day in a couple of months, never mind years.
Germany gets a lot of flak for buying Russian gas cheaply the last 30 years in ever increasing volumes. But it seems strange to argue that Germany just should have bought gas from Qatar or the US for double the price from the start.
How should Germany have done that? Import tax on Russian gas? Laws preventing importing cheap gas from the east? Sounds a bit aggressive towards our big neighbor to the east.
No, I think the article is just plain wrong. Europe benefitted from cheap gas over the last decades and it will be somewhat affected by higher prices for this and next year, but it will accelerate the transition to renewables and strengthen nuclear in those countries in Europe where it is still an option. In the end it push Europe in the right direction.