Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

There are also a hundred or more passengers on a transpacific flight. If planes and humans were equally reliable, we'd expect to see medical diversions to outnumber mechanical ones by more than 100:1....


Also depends on whether you had the fish for the in-flight dinner.


I think this post is referencing a joke from the movie Airplane! https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0080339/


which is in turn referencing the plot of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hour!

Surely one of the great comedies.



They serve dinner?


Never been on a plane before? Yeah they serve meals and drinks at your seat.


That's outrageous. Think of the profit they're giving up for comfortable service.


See: https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/5935/did-removi...

"Apparently there was an airline that managed to save tens of thousands of dollars per year by removing a single olive from the salads in their meals, because it was hardly noticed by customers it was a massive win, tens of thousands of dollars without anyone noticing.

How true is this story?"


They serve food and drinks mainly to prevent medical related diversions.

Fed and watered customers are less likely to get ill and less likely to get unruly.


Another reason is to keep passengers occupied. Keep'em fiddling with stuff and it keeps them out of the hair of the flight crew.

Trying to fit an airline meal into the terribly limited space of an airline tray, and unwrap things that need unwrapping, and keep the trash under control, and find places for the small things they include that you don't even eat or need - and still manage to partake of the comestibles - this requires skills in spatial management that for some may lead to an unrewarding career in solving infernal Chinese wooden puzzles.


I wish they felt that way about space to move around.


Ah yes, I had lasagna.


Underrated comment right here.


That’s an interesting argument in favor of smaller and faster aircraft (for a given reliability…).


By quite a bit, right? Assuming passenger malfunctions were statistically independent, I guess passenger malfunctions would follow the binomial distribution.


The probability of any passenger malfunction should be exponential by the number of passengers.


Do you mean multiplicative? Or linear? Why would it be exponential?


Any one malfunctioning passenger is sufficient to fail the overall flight. Assume each is independently probable of malfunction. If we know nothing else about the passengers, we can only model them as having some average rate of successful flight without malfunction, say 99.9%.

Say there are 100 passengers. We roll the dice 100 times, once for each passenger.

The success rate for the overall flight would be 0.999 ^ 100 = 90.4% -> About a 10% chance of flight failure.

If there are 400 passengers, we get 67.0%, about a 33% chance of flight failure.

Given enough passengers per flight, few or no flights reach their destination.


I think they mean it's 1 - prob of any person getting sick ** number of people on plane


Shouldn't you multiply rather than add IID events?


Ratios are multiplicative.




Consider applying for YC's Winter 2026 batch! Applications are open till Nov 10

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: