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It's been making the argument that Korea's aggressive testing has allowed them greater control over the epidemic.

Of course, there are a variety of other factors at work. Italy is the second "oldest" country in the world after Japan so Coronavirus infections just would be more deadly there. Also a lot of the Korean infections were confined to a single city in Korea (though the Italian infections also had an epicenter).



If Italy is the second oldest country in the world after Japan, how do they have 800 deaths compared to 16 in Japan? Something about those numbers seems off. Is it because Japan's elderly population tend to live in rural areas compared to Italy's or something else societally related?


meh. I've been married to a Japanese for over 2 decades now, and lived in Tokyo for many years including when Fukushima happened. I wouldn't trust Japanese politicians with their reported numbers any more as I'd trust China or the US.

There is one difference in Japan to Italy that might explain the lower infection rates: it's socially accepted to wear face masks (not only since covid but since the 90ies actually!)


Even if the numbers aren't reliable, reports of Japanese intensive care units being overrun aren't easy to hide, but Japanese hospitals don't seem to be under the same pressure as hospitals in Italy.

Making mask wearing more acceptable might be a cultural adjustment humanity has to make as we become more urbanized and globalized if it'll help reduce the severity of disease transmission. Looks like Japan's stumbled onto a very useful societal adaptation.


Japan's problem is a bit different -- it's estimated that there are 30+K old folks dying unnoticed in solitude every year (Kodokushi) in Japan, even without the Wuhan virus. As cynical as it may sound, that may be why Japan doesn't even bother testing their citizens for the virus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/world/asia/japan-lonely-d...


Japan has a lot of intensive care units. I guess it comes with having a generally older population.


but not compared to other developed countries (except England):

          [1] [2]
  Germany 3.7 24.6
  France  3.3 9.3
  England 2.7 3.3
  USA     2.4 20
  Canada  2.4 13.5
  Japan   2.2 4 to 5
1. Ratio of physicians to patients (per 1,000 population)

2. Number of ICU beds (per 100,000 population)


Where did you get these numbers? I’m fairly certain I’ve seen Japan being ridiculously high in these numbers before.

Edit: Never mind, that was total number of hospital beds. The number of ICU units is really small.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00134-015-4165-...


Do you have a source for those numbers? They differ significantly from https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=30183, but perhaps your source is more reliable.

Edit: nevermind, I misunderstood the definition of "Curative care (acute care) beds in hospitals".


Now that you understood it, can you explain what the difference is? It's not obvious to me either.


FWIW. My wife is Japanese and I lived in Japan through Fukushima as well.

A lot of people seem to think that Japan must somehow have a higher infection rate but I haven't seen any evidence that this is true.

For all the docileness of the mainstream media and the lame-duck politics it is a free and democratic society. The government couldn't hide a mass outbreak of corona virus anymore than it has been able to hide any other scandal. In fact almost certainly less given the levels of public interest.

The Ministry of Health and Welfare publishes updated statistics daily (https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/0000164708_... -- in Japanese). looking at the current stats published there's not really any obvious problems. They're seeing about an 8% positive rate on corona virus tests and 1.8% of those with confirmed infections have died. This is well below the rates seen in Iran, Italy, America and China suggesting they've been relatively thorough in catching infections, although less so than South Korea.

In truth the Japanese healthcare system is probably the best in the world at providing population level care. Since long before Corona virus standards of hygiene have been very high. Masks and hand sanitizer bottles have been a common site for a long time, hand washing and gargling is heavily encouraged, and direct contact (hand shakes, hugs, back pats .etc.) is very restrained.

Whats more for all the criticism it copped the Japanese government has been pretty decisive in responding to corona virus. It's shut down schools. It's shut down public spaces (museums, libraries .etc.). It's discouraged crowds. It's encourage working from home. It's restricted travel from hot spots. It's isolated those with infections. Also most age homes seem to have gone into lock down weeks ago.


Japan for whatever reason has a pretty low testing rate. It's impossible to know if that is a confounding factor or not at this point. Their infection count/death count and test count are remarkably similar to the USA.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/co...


I'd speculate that Japan isn't in the situation of the infection getting out of control.

But none of posts should be construed as "Joe's complete model of Coronavirus dynamics." There are many things we don't know and can't predict. My main argument is every country needs much testing and much surveillance of the situation - IE, the Korean model is good, that is all.



I'd be surprised if 57% of Japanese men washed their hands properly, judging by what I see when I'm in a mens room in Japan.

I'm inclined to go with the other comment nearby that says not to trust any figures coming out of Japan as a better explanation for the disparity.


That, and Japan's first recorded infection was almost two months ago.


Korea had people actively (hard to believe, I know) making things much worse. But they didn't downplay it for the first two weeks after the virus took hold. With these exponential issues time is everything.


Yup, Korea's Patient #31 made things a lot worse, or else they would be doing much better right now.


For others wondering about the story behind Patient 31, here’s an article with a timeline: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTER...


not sure if i missed it but did patient 31 recover?


No, she hasn't recovered and still under observation according to the ongoing briefing from DaeGu (10:30AM KST, March 13)


Would you be able to explain what did they do?


"Of the 152 cases [article dated Feb 21] that have been found in the city, the majority have been linked to a [church], where Patient 31, a woman said to be in her 60s, is known to have attended at least four services before being diagnosed." https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-so...


As of last night the number of cult-linked cases was "more than half". So > 3500. It turns out that in addition to worship services teice per week a lot of the cult members save money by living together. So even though worship has been stopped for nearly a month, new cult cases are still being reported.


Went to two massive church gatherings while advised to isolate, gatherings with 1000 people.


I'm curious if something like this can be considered criminal. What if the mortality rate was higher? If the mortality rate was 100%, ethically would this be murder?


It can be. There's a criminal investigation of the cult's leadership ongoing.


It's not really a church. They're a secretive society of church corrupters spreading false teachings.


From what I've heard, the Sincheonji church had a long tradition of sending followers to other churches, hiding their identity, so that they make a lot of friends there, start small clubs and bible studies, and eventually convert them into their own church. (I even heard there were cases when they converted a pastor, winning over a church wholesale, though that might be a bit embellished.)

The problem was so bad that, even before the current epidemic, other "regular" churches had a sign saying "No member of Sincheonji is allowed in our church." So, yeah, not exactly your garden variety Christian church.

When you think about it, this behavior would make Sincheonji a perfect vector for spreading the virus. And that's what happened. Yikes.


I mean, let's not throw stones when we live in glass houses. Pretty much every religion teaches that the others are false teachings.


If there are thousands of people, are they really that secretive?


They have over 200+K members now, but they are secretive in that they don't identify themselves as such when they recruit other church members.

Or worse, even after the outbreak, some didn't reveal their affiliation with the cult. In one instance, a dude leading Daegu city's outbreak management team, didn't reveal his affiliation with the cult until after test came positive and coworker were also infected. They also refused to give names of their cult members, even as most of new Wuhan virus cases were linked to the cult and the gov't actively sought their members for quarantine.


Now you’re just being intriguing... I have to know now.


All religions spread false teachings.


I think there's some hints she might have caught it from the church gatherings rather than the other way around.


I think it was on purpose,part of a doomsday cult.


oh now I am .curious what that person did?


Went to church. Twice.


And a buffet brunch!


The buffet brunch was especially egregious because she came from the doctor's. She chose the buffet instead of getting a coronavirus test as the doctor suggested. And then she went on to a sermon.


age is correlated, not causal. there are simply too many other factors.

a generally compliant national attitude, combined with aggressive testing, and community-orientation probably had as much to do with south korea's success so far.


> Italy is the second "oldest" country in the world after Japan [..]

By median age Germany is actually older than Italy, though. Not sure how age really correlates here.


Per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... the number of deaths is very strongly correlated with how many are 70+.

Median and average don't matter. Density of senior citizens does.




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