"There is a very large amount of oil production on hold or at low capacity in North America because the prices are currently too low and very much expected to go higher in the future."
You realize that this is the clusterfuck? no? We are looking to a Jojo effect. Oil prices too high? Recession. Oil prices too low? Oil producers can't afford to invest and produce (what is already happening now).
This is actually the reason why we will never run out of oil. No kidding. I assume most of the oil will stay there, where it is. In the ground!
Why? Why would it not simply stabilize at say 20% higher than now?
> This is actually the reason why we will never run out of oil.
That is either word games or nonsense. People will keep extracting oil and there is only finitely much available at reasonable prices. Note that "run out" here does not mean there is no oil left. Just like a country "running out of food" does not mean that there is nothing edible anywhere in the whole world.
"Why? Why would it not simply stabilize at say 20% higher than now?"
How about 100 or 150%? Above 100 USD you may be able to afford gas. Many people can't.
"That is either word games or nonsense. People will keep extracting oil and there is only finitely much available at reasonable prices."
There are two points you ignore.
Falling ROEI (return of energy invested) on energy invested. Good oil has a ROEI over 20 (over 100 AFAIK for the first wells long time ago). This is sinking. It is 1:2 ROEI for shale gas. At 1:1 if does not make sense to try extracting.
The same with money. Energy and money are interlinked.
www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-consumption-are-inseparable.html
Have a look of the money invested for further exploitation by big oil companies. Constantly sinking. The problem is you need high oil prices to justify investments. At the same time running an economy above 100 USD for oil is tricky. People can simply not afford it. Maybe you can, again, many people cant.
"Let’s do a thought experiment. Say the world’s proven oil reserves are 400 million barrels. And say world oil consumption is 20 million barrels a year, growing at 5 percent annually.
Question: when will earth’s oil reserves be 100 percent depleted?
OK, timeout. Before you grab a pencil and break out the scratch paper, I should warn you — the answer isn’t 14.2 years. Or 20.4 years. Or any other number of years.
>most of the oil will stay there, where it is. In the ground!
Of course it will, because we have mroe than enough oil to burn to put out enough CO2 to take us to +20 deg warming or more. So unless we get cheap CCS (carbon capture and storage) it's a good thing that most of the oil stays in the ground.
You realize that this is the clusterfuck? no? We are looking to a Jojo effect. Oil prices too high? Recession. Oil prices too low? Oil producers can't afford to invest and produce (what is already happening now).
This is actually the reason why we will never run out of oil. No kidding. I assume most of the oil will stay there, where it is. In the ground!
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/07/10/why-stimulus-cant-fix-...