"Why? Why would it not simply stabilize at say 20% higher than now?"
How about 100 or 150%? Above 100 USD you may be able to afford gas. Many people can't.
"That is either word games or nonsense. People will keep extracting oil and there is only finitely much available at reasonable prices."
There are two points you ignore.
Falling ROEI (return of energy invested) on energy invested. Good oil has a ROEI over 20 (over 100 AFAIK for the first wells long time ago). This is sinking. It is 1:2 ROEI for shale gas. At 1:1 if does not make sense to try extracting.
The same with money. Energy and money are interlinked.
www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-consumption-are-inseparable.html
Have a look of the money invested for further exploitation by big oil companies. Constantly sinking. The problem is you need high oil prices to justify investments. At the same time running an economy above 100 USD for oil is tricky. People can simply not afford it. Maybe you can, again, many people cant.
How about 100 or 150%? Above 100 USD you may be able to afford gas. Many people can't.
"That is either word games or nonsense. People will keep extracting oil and there is only finitely much available at reasonable prices."
There are two points you ignore. Falling ROEI (return of energy invested) on energy invested. Good oil has a ROEI over 20 (over 100 AFAIK for the first wells long time ago). This is sinking. It is 1:2 ROEI for shale gas. At 1:1 if does not make sense to try extracting.
The same with money. Energy and money are interlinked. www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-consumption-are-inseparable.html
Have a look of the money invested for further exploitation by big oil companies. Constantly sinking. The problem is you need high oil prices to justify investments. At the same time running an economy above 100 USD for oil is tricky. People can simply not afford it. Maybe you can, again, many people cant.