In early August, John Gruber wrote that:
“The wheels are turning on N92, the CDMA variant of the iPhone 4... It’s right about where you’d think it would be if it were scheduled to go on sale in January. The CDMA iPhone is no longer a cold storage, keep-it-alive-just-in-case-we-need-it project.” [1]
He noted that the CDMA iPhone could be headed for China Telecom first - the competitor to China Unicom, who just launched a GSM iPhone 4 in that country.
He cites anonymous tipsters, as well as:
- Bloomberg says Verizon iPhone coming in January [2]
- CEA announces the Verizon CEO as the keynote speaker for CES in January [3]
- Steve Cheney claims that Apple has placed orders for “millions of units of Qualcomm CDMA chipsets” for December [4]
- Digitimes reports that Pegatron Technology will begin mass production in December of CDMA iPhones for Verizon and China Telecom [5]
Verizon and Apple blew it on this one IMO. While the iPhone has been wildly successful by pretty much any metric, there is a not-small market segment that hasn't picked up an iPhone solely because it is encumbered with AT&T. (I am one member of that group.)
AT&T gave up its exclusivity deal with Apple for the iPhone back in the spring of this year. Verizon and other insiders had to have known well in advance that they were going to. They should have been ready for a release in July, at the latest.
Instead, Android has made great strides. I'm not a gadget guy when it comes to my phone; I just want it to work and be easy to use and not frustrate me. So, I've played with the various releases of Android and have continued to hold out for an iPhone ... until 2.2. 2.2 is good enough for me, and best of all, Android appears to be gaining ground on the iPhone, and it isn't being crushed by Apple's thumb.
It's tough to tell for sure, but if I'm not alone in all this, then when the iPhone finally does come out for Verizon, it could fall flat on its face. It just took too damned long and frustrated everyone that has been patient enough to wait for it for years.
Android has made great strides in market share, but that's about it. Have you used a Droid 2? They're loaded with bloatware now... it's like buying a Dell PC. My buddy keeps asking me, "How can I remove this stupid blockbuster app??"
Android is a joke. I love my Nexus One... but Apple is still delivering the best mobile experience. AT&T is without a doubt the only downside to the iPhone. While Apple is strong-arming carriers with insane sales and joyous fans, Android devices are getting worse and worse to try and make every little device unique. One has a 5mp camera, one has a 8mp camera, one has two LED's for flash, the other only has one, blah blah blah they're all the same!
I have been vying for the Android underdog for too long now and I for one am VERY anxious to see the iPhone on CDMA, because I'll finally be able to get back to using a terrific platform on a solid network.
> Android has made great strides in market share, but that's about it.
That's about the whole of the argument, yes. :-)
> Have you used a Droid 2?
One of my techs got one a while back; one of my other techs got a Droid X just a couple of weeks ago. They both seem extremely happy with them. Several of my clients -- including those that aren't technically savvy -- also have Droid devices, and seem fairly satisfied with them.
> They're loaded with bloatware now... it's like buying a Dell PC.
That's a funny example to use, since Dells these days really aren't all that bad. They certainly are nowhere near as bad as, say, Acer.
> Android is a joke.
Eh. 32% of the people that bought a smart phone within six months prior to Jan 2010 - Aug 2010 seem to disagree.
> ...but Apple is still delivering the best mobile experience.
Before September of this year, I'd've agreed with you.
Most people don't seem to care much about which device has which camera or how many LEDs there are for flash or what-have-you; that seems to be more a software developer complaint.
What percentage of the 32% of people that bought a smart phone in that period had the option of buying an iPhone on their preferred carrier? How many people just go to their carrier's retail store and buy the phone they like best? Until the iPhone came out, that was how I bought my phones!
Have you used a Droid 2? They're loaded with bloatware now... it's like buying a Dell PC.
I got the HTC Incredible and there isn't really any bloatware on it (some people don't like the Sense UI, but the phone doesn't suffer for it and most reviews I read were positive on it).
Several of my friends have iPhones, and I am never envious.
> AT&T is without a doubt the only downside to the iPhone
I think you jumped the shark on that one. It may be specifically true for you based on your own personal preferences but in general the iPhone is inferior in many many ways to Android, just as it is superior in many ways. Only someone quite unfamiliar with one or both platforms could really honestly say AT&T is the only downside.
I agree with you, and thaumaturgy below — it’s clear that they signed a 5-year agreement. But as Engadget notes in your first reference, contracts can be canceled, amended, and breached in many ways, and the two companies have had a number of chances to renegotiate over the last three years, including when:
- Apple adopted subsidized pricing soon after the first iPhone was released (to sell it at $399/8GB instead of $599)
- AT&T’s serviced proved spotty and unreliable for many at times
- the iPad was introduced with an optional AT&T 3G data plan
So it’s hard to know if the agreement is still in place, or if it means enough to prevent Apple from pursuing the large Verizon customer base.
You might be right. At the very least, the exclusivity does seem to officially still be in effect; looks like I got caught up in some speculations earlier this year. On the other hand, AT&T certainly is preparing for the loss of exclusivity [1], and we know that AT&T picked up exclusivity for the iPad, so it would make sense that they were opting to drop the iPhone deal while picking up the iPad (which is also what an AT&T insider that I know was saying quite a while back).
My guess is that there's a huge pent up demand among people who want an iPhone in theory, but not enough to switch carriers in practice. It's hard to believe that the iPhone could literally "fall on its face", as you say.
It doesn't help that the carriers stole the goose that lays the golden egg by rebranding the phones; they'd be doing better if people were shopping for "Android" phones.
Switching carriers is easy. (provided you are out of contract and don't mind signing a new one, or paying ETFs)
Knowing that your phone of choice is on the carrier that doesn't get reception in your home and drops your calls constantly, means that it does in fact, matter which carrier you choose.
I read your comment as though you were saying that the process of switching carriers was the challenge, which is not what I was saying. If that's not what you meant, then I misinterpreted it.
As for it being hard to imagine the iPhone falling flat ... well, I provided graphs and links to industry sites. I'm certainly not the only one seeing it turning out this way.
> It's tough to tell for sure, but if I'm not alone in all this, then when the iPhone finally does come out for Verizon, it could fall flat on its face. It just took too damned long and frustrated everyone that has been patient enough to wait for it for years.
Reminds me of that old Mitch Hedberg joke, "You will either hate us or love us... or you'll think we're ok."
Were you the kind of kid who had their Christmas morning ruined because you had to wait 364 days for it to happen? Everyone groaned when the AT&T exclusivity agreement was announced, but widely understood that it would be years before you could get the phone on another carrier. I'd argue that while it was a polarizing move, publicized exclusivity actually helped the sales of the iPhone. You either accepted that you'd have to use AT&T and got the phone regardless of the service, or you didn't. Anyone waiting with baited breath for a second carrier in the US was either ignorant, stupid, or both. The options were clear. Now that exclusivity is about to be over there is a second wave of adoption coming. Why? Because the things that made the phone worth buying to begin with are still there, and the only deal-breaker for most people is going away. Everyone who "needed" an iPhone already has one. Everyone who "likes" the iPhone is about to have it be an option.
I would love to see the facts supporting your hypothesis that, "AT&T gave up its exclusivity deal with Apple for the iPhone back in the spring of this year. Verizon and other insiders had to have known well in advance that they were going to. They should have been ready for a release in July, at the latest." You're making assertions about the strategy for the next phase of one of the most popular consumer electronic devices ever, and you're backing them up with the word "should."
What, I'm just supposed to put up with your barbs, and tptacek's, and act like this is all somehow civil and continue wasting time here?
No, thank you.
I've procrastinated long enough today, and given that I was taking a day off from dealing with people today, I've just encountered a little more "people" than I wanted to. news.yc is getting redirected to my localhost for the rest of the day.
I think that until recently, the Android market and the iPhone markets had only a little overlap; there were relatively few people that had a perfectly equal inclination to purchase an iPhone or an Android device, assuming that both were available on their carrier-of-choice.
Meanwhile, AT&T has continued to be one of the top complaints about the iPhone. [1] (This doesn't help Apple's image, BTW; if Apple is so concerned with the end-user experience, then why are they in bed with one of the most-hated companies in the U.S.?)
In other words, Android has been a popular fall-back for people that wanted a solid smart phone without AT&T. Although Android has been doing very well for Verizon [2], I have no trouble imagining that Verizon has lost out on a sizable amount of business from the market segment that preferred the iPhone to Android. Android 2.2 came out just a couple of weeks ago; back in July, a Verizon iPhone could have been a big deal.
Now that Android has finally caught up to the iPhone (IMO), I think the holdouts are going to start picking up Android devices, which is going to cost Apple, which has already fallen behind Android in terms of both growth and popularity.
On the other hand, AT&T has been paying Apple by the metric ton for the exclusivity deal, so maybe that money has been worth the lost market share for Apple and they just don't give a shit.
edit: I suspect that a lot of this comes down to some politics and personalities. Apple had to have pissed off Verizon a bit when they offered a hugely popular device, but only for Verizon's only real U.S. competitor; then Apple pissed off Google shortly after; then, not too much further along, we start to hear that Verizon and Google are getting real friendly with each-other, possibly in an "any enemy of my enemy is a friend of mine" way. Verizon's been happy to push Android real hard, Google's been happy to support Verizon, and the two of them together are certainly putting some hurt on Apple/AT&T. It just sucks that consumers are getting caught in the middle.
"It just sucks that consumers are getting caught in the middle."
Yes and no. If the rumors are true, the original iPhone was offered to VZW and they wanted to do their standard load it with crapware, limit standard features and then charge the customer to get them later, etc... game. Apple refused and they ended up stalemating. That lead Apple to then Cingular (IIRC) who let Apple have all the control it wanted, and even gave them a cut of the subscription pie.
VZW and others still put extra crap on phones [1], but at least it seems it's getting better.
Good point. Verizon's vcast was garbage, and they insisted on sticking it on everything for a while. (Maybe they still do.) Plus, they're still one of the worst carriers for causing consumers to bear data charges because they hit the center button on a phone.
And then there was the time a few months back where one of my clients had a shiny new Android phone, and the manufacturer or carrier had replaced the Android mail application with their own -- which also happened to silently fail on outbound ssl connections.
We've been hearing that the iPhone will be on Verizon "any day now" for the past three years. I'll believe it when I see it in a Verizon store. They can't even fill the preorders for white iPhones....
This story can be spot-on (Apple's producing a CDMA iPhone) without fulfilling the only aspect which US-centric HN readers care about (that Verizon will carry it). The story is framed in terms of technical capability, not in terms of a deal in place.
A Verizon deal would be news. A CDMA iPhone in January just means Gruber has good sources.
It's beginning to feel like the Duke Nukem Forever of phones. It's been rumored too many times over the years for me to believe it until I actually hold it in my hands. Perhaps it will actually happen soon, but I remain skeptical.
(Yes, I know DNF is actually coming out, it appears. Gearbox just had to go and ruin a perfectly good metaphor by releasing a game that people have wanted for years.)
The fact that the white iPhone has not shipped is mutually exclusive from carrier availability rumors. With that said - although WSJ has been historically accurate on occasions, I've got a heavy filter on for things like this until it comes from Steve Jobs himself.
Folks seem to forget that not everyone has the option of switching carriers. The most obvious example of this are people who get their phone from their company via a bulk contract with a particular provider, as I used to when working at a large bank. If your company is only offering you Verizon service, you're not going to give up an essentially free wireless account on that carrier to pay $100/mo for an ATT account, even if you would rather have an iPhone. A lot of folks are also not aware of number portability yet - I still see notices that folks have changed their numbers because they got a new carrier - so they may think that buying an iPhone on ATT would mean changing numbers.
Do you mind sharing your age range? The reason I ask is, I work for an agency, and we have blackberry service provided by T-Mobile, which we are free to use as our personal phone.
However, most people, especially those 35 and under, and our technically inclined folks, all still carry their own phone. Primarily because they want the iPhone, or in some cases, want Android.
This isn't happening for the exact same reasons it's never been happening:
1. Newspapers and bloggers love this story. It generates clicks.
2. People want an iPhone on other networks. This makes them want to believe this in spite of the evidence.
3. CDMA doesn't do simultaneous voice and data. Apple is unlikely to try and explain such a difference to consumers given their focus on user experience.
4. CDMA is a dead/dying technology. Jobs summed this up In his D8 interview (when talking about Flash): Apple picks technologies in their "Spring". CDMA will be phased out in favor of LTE.
5. Most of the world uses GSM. The market for CDMA is small. People in the US forget this because of Verizon.
6. Apple tests far more products than they release. I'm sure there has been a CDMA iPhone. That doesn't mean it will be launched as a product.
7. AT&T had a five year exclusivity deal with the iPhone starting in 2007 according to court documents. While this may have changed it seems unlikely that AT&T would give this up without getting something huge in return. The only possibility realistically us that AT&T has failed to meet it's contractual requirements somehow.
8. AT&T service apparently sucks in SF and NYC, where most tech journalists and bloggers are. They are fine in most of the rest of the country. But this creates a huge sample bias in the press.
If Apple does a CDMA anything it will, in my opinion, be an iPad.
I was dubious, but the last line really clicks. A verizon iPad would be perfect for Apple. The iPhone 4 was the last true iteration of the iPhone. I imagine the team has mostly moved into developing the next iPad.
The only thing that matters to me now is the day apple starts selling all iphones unlocked. I don't want to go through firmware hacks to unlock an iphone or be forced on to a contract in order to buy it, I just want to be able to throw in any sim card and just go.
So basically entire report based on stuff some people heard from some other people. "Apple is also developing a new iPhone model, said people briefed on the matter"
But Verizon doesn't have simultaneous voice/data, so how will this work out? One of the main selling points (in the iPhone commercials) is that you can check your email/use Safari while making a call.
I'm pretty underwhelmed by that argument, given that my iPhone 3G on AT&T's network in NYC can barely do voice OR data, let alone both at the same time.
I do it all the time actually. For example, someone will be calling me telling me something/someone I need to follow up with. I can start immediately emailing the person and at least get started, if not finish the task. Different strokes for different folks.
Edit: I also use Google Maps while talking, or check for movie times while someone is on the phone.
So then on Verizon you could do everything but hit 'Send' on the email.
I too don't put much value on the simultaneous voice/data feature, but then again I have 2 phones, so I usually multitask by using two devices. Even without that though, I've never really felt a huge demand for the voice+data thing.
I'm on Verizon with a data plan (have a Pre). I honestly can't remember the last time I needed to use voice and data at the same time. I don't think this is as big of a deal as you're making it out to be.
It's because nerds don't like to talk on the phone. They prefer email and other asynchronous messaging methods.
Here are cases I've used:
1) Take a call while tethered (I think USians on AT&T underestimate this use case)
2) Send an email while on a call a discuss to discuss attachements. (PDF, image mockups, etc)
3) Send an iCal event and juggle schedules to meet
4) Take a call while running with RunKeeper in the background
5) Refer to Twitter DMs while on a call
6) Sync DropBox/iDisk while on a call to talk about documents
7) Look up directions on Google Maps for the caller
8) Look up movies on Flixster and decide which movie to go to.
9) Play games while on hold
It's handy when you need it. Put someone on speaker, go to the net, look up the time of an event. That said, I don't do it enough that it really matters.
There's too many comma's in that process (or: too many steps) for me to consider it to be a serious problem.
// edit: for whoever downvoted me: The more steps it takes to reproduce an issue, the less likely someone is to complete all the steps and run into it. The OP listed three steps, that will only happen under rare circumstances (people don't normally go to concerts every day).
My wife travels a lot for work, she's constantly using google maps on the iPhone to find directions while talking on the phone to the person she'll meet. She's not very technical, she just does it without thinking about the steps involved because it isn't really very complicated when you do it.
I use my iPhone for tethering and I get calls while I'm using it sometimes and would like to be able to get the call without it knocking me offline all the time. Granted not many people have tethering enabled on their iPhone as it's not officially supported, but hey, it matters to me (and I'm sure plenty of other techies that have iPhones).
Agreed, it's never come up for me during the months that I've been using a Pre on Verizon.
I'll tell you what has come up for me, though- the Pre's UI for multi-tasking is way better than that found under iOS. There are a lot of things I dislike about the Pre, but the WebOS UI is not one of them. If only I could merge the hardware and app selection of the iPhone with the UI of the Pre... well, a guy can dream.
i thought this was a bullshit feature too until i was on hold for an hour (ironically, or not, with att). still, i think that's the only time i've used it.
I'm pretty sure those were AT&T commercials, not Apple commercials. And given that no Verizon customers have simultaneous voice/data, it's pretty clearly not make-or-break to the target market of a Verizon phone.
Also, the limitation only applies to cellular data; anywhere a Verizon customer has wifi they can use both.
I'm pretty sure I read it on Boy Genius Report that Verizon had plans of implementing Voice over Revision A (VoR A) this year. That should take care of the simultaneous Voice/Data connection without having to wait for Voice over LTE.
I've used this maybe once or twice. Granted, I'd have been pretty annoyed if I tried to do it and discovered I couldn't, but it would have had fairly minimal impact after the initial indignation wore off.
People don't buy smart phones to spend all their time talking on them. I'm sure some people do, but that's not the core feature and not the reason why people buy them.
If the time comes when Apple does release a Verizon iPhone, it won't matter. Apple has already alienated potential customers by forcing them to switch to AT&T. Droid's success is an indicator of peoples' unwillingness to switch. Verizon's customer service can be lacking at times, but not enough that I would have switched to AT&T.
In early August, John Gruber wrote that: “The wheels are turning on N92, the CDMA variant of the iPhone 4... It’s right about where you’d think it would be if it were scheduled to go on sale in January. The CDMA iPhone is no longer a cold storage, keep-it-alive-just-in-case-we-need-it project.” [1]
He noted that the CDMA iPhone could be headed for China Telecom first - the competitor to China Unicom, who just launched a GSM iPhone 4 in that country.
He cites anonymous tipsters, as well as:
- Bloomberg says Verizon iPhone coming in January [2]
- CEA announces the Verizon CEO as the keynote speaker for CES in January [3]
- Steve Cheney claims that Apple has placed orders for “millions of units of Qualcomm CDMA chipsets” for December [4]
- Digitimes reports that Pegatron Technology will begin mass production in December of CDMA iPhones for Verizon and China Telecom [5]
[1] http://daringfireball.net/2010/08/n92
[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/verizon-wireless-sa...
[3] http://cesweb.org/news/080410.asp#4200
[4] http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/08/verizon-iphone-january/
[5] http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20100809VL202.html