> Resolution will be via a poll of Manifold moderators. If they're split on the issue, with anywhere from 30% to 70% YES votes, it'll resolve to the proportion of YES votes.
So you should really read it as “Will >30% of Manifold moderators in 2027 think the ‘predictions seem to have been roughly correct up until that point’?”
That’s a misreading of the phrase “proportion of YES votes”. If 30% of judges vote YES, then only 30% – not 100% – of the prediction’s market cap is awarded to those who bet YES. The remaining 70% of the market cap is awarded to those who bet NO.
The market correctly rewards those who bet NO in such a case. Therefore, bettors have no reason to bet YES if they really think NO.
While we expect this capability to improve rapidly in the coming months, Claude's current ability to use computers is imperfect. Some actions that people perform effortlessly—scrolling, dragging, zooming—currently present challenges for Claude and we encourage developers to begin exploration with low-risk tasks.
Being a software development manager in a non-software development company...in healthcare. The pride with which people claim that they are not a “technical” person while handling patient data is mind boggling.
Yeah. I sometimes think about it. The problem is most of the farmers have very less land. Also they use unsustainable methods and weather has been inconsistent in recent years.
We need another agricultural revolution. But it's lot more complicated to get people on board. People in the rural area are really hard to work with ( not all of them ).They suffer , but they don't want change , they want subsidiaries , free loans. maybe we don't understand them because we live in the cities.
