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That’s a misreading of the phrase “proportion of YES votes”. If 30% of judges vote YES, then only 30% – not 100% – of the prediction’s market cap is awarded to those who bet YES. The remaining 70% of the market cap is awarded to those who bet NO.

The market correctly rewards those who bet NO in such a case. Therefore, bettors have no reason to bet YES if they really think NO.




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