The problem with advice like this is that it's not nearly as useful as it seems. The biggest problem here is that typically it takes a visionary to recognize a visionary in the early stages, before any of the vision has actually been realized. And that's only part of the equation, there's also talent, ability to execute well, and luck of course.
If you're a time traveler from the future, sure you bet on Bill and Paul, because you know how that turns out. But let's say you're a time traveler from an alternate timeline, or an alien from a more advanced planet, can you still tell who to bet on? Even if you had the knowledge to know how people would use computers in the future and what sorts of things would be most in demand, Microsoft wasn't necessarily the best bet way back in the Altair Basic era. Back then the obvious choice would have been Gary Kildall and Digital Research who had CP/M, a serious operating system that was light years ahead of the competition in the late '70s. It took several bizarre twists and turns for Microsoft to end up on top, but it was far from foreordained that they would. Other obvious competitors included Lotus and VisiCalc, folks who seemed poised to have strong offerings nestled in the bosom of a growing computer industry.
What Microsoft had that the others lacked was sticktoitiveness, adaptability, and business savvy. They were willing to do what ever it took to ride to the top, whereas other companies were satisfied with "merely" massive runaway success. And that showed up in surprising and non-intuitive ways. DR built CP/M from the ground up and invested heavily in making it the best they could. Microsoft bought a clone of CP/M that was written in 6 weeks for $75k because they needed an OS to deliver to IBM for the IBM PC, and they thought that was a reasonable business arrangement to be in. In no way does that sound like sound engineering or sound business strategy, but it turned out to be one of the most pivotal events in computing history. It was Microsoft's tenacity and their desire to make billions where others were content to make only billions that brought them to the top of the industry, things that weren't really obvious until after they happened.
For venture capitalists this problem isn't a big deal, because they can just play the lottery and invest in Digital Research as well as Microsoft and Lotus and all the reasonable bets. For people looking for "the next microsoft" to work at, the problem is much more difficult, if not fundamentally impossible.
If you're a time traveler from the future, sure you bet on Bill and Paul, because you know how that turns out. But let's say you're a time traveler from an alternate timeline, or an alien from a more advanced planet, can you still tell who to bet on? Even if you had the knowledge to know how people would use computers in the future and what sorts of things would be most in demand, Microsoft wasn't necessarily the best bet way back in the Altair Basic era. Back then the obvious choice would have been Gary Kildall and Digital Research who had CP/M, a serious operating system that was light years ahead of the competition in the late '70s. It took several bizarre twists and turns for Microsoft to end up on top, but it was far from foreordained that they would. Other obvious competitors included Lotus and VisiCalc, folks who seemed poised to have strong offerings nestled in the bosom of a growing computer industry.
What Microsoft had that the others lacked was sticktoitiveness, adaptability, and business savvy. They were willing to do what ever it took to ride to the top, whereas other companies were satisfied with "merely" massive runaway success. And that showed up in surprising and non-intuitive ways. DR built CP/M from the ground up and invested heavily in making it the best they could. Microsoft bought a clone of CP/M that was written in 6 weeks for $75k because they needed an OS to deliver to IBM for the IBM PC, and they thought that was a reasonable business arrangement to be in. In no way does that sound like sound engineering or sound business strategy, but it turned out to be one of the most pivotal events in computing history. It was Microsoft's tenacity and their desire to make billions where others were content to make only billions that brought them to the top of the industry, things that weren't really obvious until after they happened.
For venture capitalists this problem isn't a big deal, because they can just play the lottery and invest in Digital Research as well as Microsoft and Lotus and all the reasonable bets. For people looking for "the next microsoft" to work at, the problem is much more difficult, if not fundamentally impossible.