How does this change the point that there are entrepreneurs who have instincts about the market AND timing that turn out to be right?
The broader point is Peter Thiel's --> You are not a lottery ticket.
The best example might be Jeff Bezos and his business plan. Elon Musk has been consistent for ~ 20 yrs about the areas he set out to work on since college and he's followed that through. It's not dumb luck. It's skill + luck. The skill part of the equation is oft dumbed down in favor of the randomized success algorithm. People who are able to repeat their successes multiple times e.g. Joel Spolsky, Elon Musk, David Duffield, Rich Barton are especially skilled and it would be disingenuous to attribute their successes to some luck/timing that they were not ultimately mostly responsible for creating or noticing.
To counter your example: on their second, third, fourth companies repeatedly successful entrepreneurs have all the benefits from the first success. As a result, they are far less reliant on luck in relation to funding, talent, getting the word out, etc. For your example to fully prove your point, you would need to find entrepreneurs who have repeatedly changed their name and identity between each of their successes.
The broader point is Peter Thiel's --> You are not a lottery ticket.
The best example might be Jeff Bezos and his business plan. Elon Musk has been consistent for ~ 20 yrs about the areas he set out to work on since college and he's followed that through. It's not dumb luck. It's skill + luck. The skill part of the equation is oft dumbed down in favor of the randomized success algorithm. People who are able to repeat their successes multiple times e.g. Joel Spolsky, Elon Musk, David Duffield, Rich Barton are especially skilled and it would be disingenuous to attribute their successes to some luck/timing that they were not ultimately mostly responsible for creating or noticing.