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Have a look at the charts showing the fees per day [1] and the network deficit [2]. On the one hand fees went up, but before the block reward dropped, on the other hand the network operated at a deficit for quite some time. One has of course to take these graphs with a grain of salt because it is quite hard to estimated the real costs of running the Bitcoin network.

But I really don't understand what you are arguing for. Once the block reward becomes mostly irrelevant you have essentially two choices - relatively expensive transactions or a weak network, i.e. low hash rate. Don't you agree with that?

[1] https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?showDataPoin...

[2] https://blockchain.info/charts/network-deficit?timespan=all&...




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