> The reason they are doing this is that the increased traffic is attacking television distribution.
I disagree. I admit that this is subtle, and I don't fault you for seeing it immediately. If it were only true that Comcast was afraid of Netflix as a media competitor, then Comcast could easily beat Netflix at that game, and likely reap a few cost savings. So it's not this. I suspect that at least some of the executives know that Comcast as a tv distributor is already a lost cause, and that this doesn't bother them too much.
What does bother them is, having run the numbers, they realize that Netflix traffic will only continue growing, on a very steep curve. While some chump change upgrades could fix the immediate problem (probably cheap enough that they'd do it just for PR), it won't fix the bigger problem: what happens in 4 years when the HFC network itself is inadequate?
They can't afford to go to an all-fiber network. That's billions of outlays that they'd have to recoup over decades.
They're afraid of losing their internet business, not their tv business.
These aren't local-loop issues, it's core network.
Will they have issues with the local coax networks getting saturated in the coming years?
Sure -- they do anyway, which is why they are investing in DOCCIS 3 in all markets, and experimenting with coax/fiber hybrids in a few places. None of their equipment works forever, they refresh the networks in 5-10 year cycles.
The issue is that they are like an old-school bank or telephone company. They own infrastructure, and extract a fee for running it that doesn't fluctuate much. They want to be higher growth companies, but the only way to do that is to generate more revenue.
If you surrender and let them say "Netflix's bandwidth needs are soooo complicated, we must be compensated!", then tomorrow they'll say "VoIP and Gaming latency needs are soooo complicated, we need more $$$ for that too!"
I disagree. I admit that this is subtle, and I don't fault you for seeing it immediately. If it were only true that Comcast was afraid of Netflix as a media competitor, then Comcast could easily beat Netflix at that game, and likely reap a few cost savings. So it's not this. I suspect that at least some of the executives know that Comcast as a tv distributor is already a lost cause, and that this doesn't bother them too much.
What does bother them is, having run the numbers, they realize that Netflix traffic will only continue growing, on a very steep curve. While some chump change upgrades could fix the immediate problem (probably cheap enough that they'd do it just for PR), it won't fix the bigger problem: what happens in 4 years when the HFC network itself is inadequate?
They can't afford to go to an all-fiber network. That's billions of outlays that they'd have to recoup over decades.
They're afraid of losing their internet business, not their tv business.