> That's true of every black swan - the worst that can happen is everybody dies.
Not at all. Taleb like to use the example of selling insurance and shorts, where your downside is unlimited. Millions, billions, trillions... Think AIG or LTCM. Not everything has consequences solely for health.
> You do not mention any studies of long term effects and you consider FUD raising the possibility that there could be adverse effects.
In the absence of any evidence whatsoever for that, and plenty of positive correlations, short-term studies without any problem... Yes. It is FUD. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
> When more and more studies show negative long term effect of substances that were considered innocuous (like vitamins), it's not FUD, it's being reasonably cautious.
Only some vitamins show any mortality effects, the mortality effects while real are pretty small, the vitamins did not deliver the long-term health benefits promised (but never really demonstrated in experiments) which might offset the harm, and the vitamins were being consumed in huge doses. The first reduces the possibility of any such outcome, the second points out that you are exaggerating the harm, the third means that vitamins were a purely speculative play unlike melatonin, and the fourth reduces the concern that any such thing would happen with melatonin when one sticks to the suggested doses like 0.5mg rather than 5mg.
Not at all. Taleb like to use the example of selling insurance and shorts, where your downside is unlimited. Millions, billions, trillions... Think AIG or LTCM. Not everything has consequences solely for health.
> You do not mention any studies of long term effects and you consider FUD raising the possibility that there could be adverse effects.
In the absence of any evidence whatsoever for that, and plenty of positive correlations, short-term studies without any problem... Yes. It is FUD. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
> When more and more studies show negative long term effect of substances that were considered innocuous (like vitamins), it's not FUD, it's being reasonably cautious.
Only some vitamins show any mortality effects, the mortality effects while real are pretty small, the vitamins did not deliver the long-term health benefits promised (but never really demonstrated in experiments) which might offset the harm, and the vitamins were being consumed in huge doses. The first reduces the possibility of any such outcome, the second points out that you are exaggerating the harm, the third means that vitamins were a purely speculative play unlike melatonin, and the fourth reduces the concern that any such thing would happen with melatonin when one sticks to the suggested doses like 0.5mg rather than 5mg.