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I don't believe this post tells the entire story. Adwords (advertising in general) is just one part of doing business in general. Other reasons that might explain the trends showcased:

- Businesses have cycles, maybe the author is experiencing the end of his software's business/product cycle. An 8 year period is considered by many an economic cycle. I certainly don't use the same software today as I did 8 years ago.

- During the past 8 years the business of software has completely changed: distribution, barriers to entry, platform (desktop/web/mobile), etc.

- Profitable businesses tend, over time, with no meaningful reinvestment, r&d, etc, produce marginal profits equal to zero.

- What are the software alternatives to the author's product/service? 8 years ago Encarta was "the" digital encyclopaedia, today it's Wikipedia.

- Adwords 8 years ago was a nascent ad platform, resulting in low cost due to low competing bids, today it's "the" most popular online ad platform.

These are just a few reasons behind these trends. Any other thoughts?



Maybe the shift towards web apps has turned potential users away from desktop apps like the one mentioned.


I don't think he said his sales were flagging, just that Adwords was becoming less profitable.


He said "conversions" were falling, which means sales: http://successfulsoftware.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/adword...

But he doesn't say whether conversions-per-incoming-click are declining.


CTR and conversation rates have remained pretty constant throughout.




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