Well, just from skimming some of the pages on Amazon, it seems to back up a lot of the original article's points.
eg. on p25 McConnell lists project outcomes by project size:
1000 LOC -> 81% on time, 4% late, 2% cancelled
10,000,000 LOC -> 14% on time, 21% late, 65% cancelled
Smaller project, better estimates.
Also notice that McConnell uses terms like "Approved Product Definition" and "Requirements Complete". It's a rare project, particularly in the consulting world, that can nail down requirements to the degree that you get really accurate estimates. For packaged software products it's doable, for other things, not so much.
Yes, I can and do estimate accurately, as can many others. Estimation is a basic engineering skill.
McConnell's book, linked to by the other contributor, is a sensible introduction to doing reasonably accurate estimates for projects that aren't incredibly huge (10MLOC+). Very accurate estimates (within 5-10%) and estimates of incredibly huge projects are also possible but require specialist estimators with extensive training and practice.
