Bzzzt. Bad use of statistics, because it's not a matter of chance. The ideas that fit best with YC's ideas of what a Y Combinator startup should look like and look like they have the best shot at succeeding win.
This is not a matter of chance. If your idea lines up perfectly with YC's vision, you get in, no matter how many other people apply. If your idea is completely unworkable for YC's goals (such as: you have a single founder, you're planning to run the startup indefinitely rather than sell it ), you may as well not apply, because even if there are 25 slots and 20 applicants you'll probably be rejected.
You don't know what you're talking about. We've funded several single founders, and we actually prefer people who want to run the company indefinitely. We make very little from early acquisitions.
This is not a matter of chance. If your idea lines up perfectly with YC's vision, you get in, no matter how many other people apply. If your idea is completely unworkable for YC's goals (such as: you have a single founder, you're planning to run the startup indefinitely rather than sell it ), you may as well not apply, because even if there are 25 slots and 20 applicants you'll probably be rejected.