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If Obama was forecast to havee 100% chance of winning, wouldn't voters for alternative candidates also be less inlcined to vote?


They might also view it as a challenge to prove the pundits wrong, and turn out in large numbers.


Depends how "alternative" those candidates are -- it might convince more people that they can vote for their actual favorite instead of issuing a strategic vote for whichever of the two major-party candidates they find less objectionable than the other.




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