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Politicians are highly numerate. They just lie about their incentives so the appear innumerate when misjudged.


Only politicians in the vanishingly small percentage of districts that are actually competitive.


Many of those districts are still competitive, just at the primary level instead of the general election.


Primary elections are only competitive when there isn't an incumbent. And even then rarely, because there is a candidate that the party favors.


Playing to the lowest common denominator. Any politician who says they don't read the news or polls is lying.




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