I disagree. There is some argument to be had that they're already generally intelligent. They're already certainly better than me in basically anything I can ask them to do.
So that leads to the question of what qualifies as intelligent? And do we need sentience for intelligence? What about self-agency/-actuation? Is that needed for "generally intelligent"?
I don't know.
But I feel like we're not there yet, even for non-sentient intelligence. I personally think we need an "unlimited" context (as good as human memory context windows anyway, which some argue we've already surpassed) and genuine self-learning before we get close. I don't think we need it to be an infallible genius (i.e
ASI) to qualify as generally intelligent ... or to put it another way "about as smart and reliable as the average human adult" which frankly is quite a low bar!
One thing for sure though, I think this will creep up on us and one day it will suddenly become apparent that it's already there and we just didn't appreciate/notice/comprehend. There won't be a big fireworks display the moment it happens, more of a creeping realisation I think.
How much of our brain's innate wiring is "pre-training"? We're born pre-wired to breath, to swallow, to blink, sleep, cry etc. Fine tuned over many many many epochs and baked into our model weights/DNA.
Is a newborn baby without learnt-knowledge not an intelligent being to you?
Or is an empty vessel such as a newborn baby intelligent merely because it has the ability to learn?
It gets pretty philosophical pretty quick. This is why I don't think there'll be a "moment" when AGI happens - there is so many ways to interpret what constitutes intelligence.
But yeah I agree that until models can learn in real time then I think we're probably not there yet. As I said - 5 years give or take I reckon.
> Is a newborn baby without learnt-knowledge not an intelligent being to you?
A newborn baby without learnt knowledge is a phenomenal comparison to an LLM: reactionary, incapable of communicating a novel thought, extremely inconsistent reactions to similar stimuli, costs a lot of money, and the best part is they almost never turn out to be an income-bearing investment.
Despite all this, people vehemently defend their ugly, obnoxious, screaming, drooling babies with the fierceness of a lion, because they’re so blinded by emotion they’re incapable of logical thought.
I have three kids, I’ve earned the right to say this.
So that leads to the question of what qualifies as intelligent? And do we need sentience for intelligence? What about self-agency/-actuation? Is that needed for "generally intelligent"?
I don't know.
But I feel like we're not there yet, even for non-sentient intelligence. I personally think we need an "unlimited" context (as good as human memory context windows anyway, which some argue we've already surpassed) and genuine self-learning before we get close. I don't think we need it to be an infallible genius (i.e ASI) to qualify as generally intelligent ... or to put it another way "about as smart and reliable as the average human adult" which frankly is quite a low bar!
One thing for sure though, I think this will creep up on us and one day it will suddenly become apparent that it's already there and we just didn't appreciate/notice/comprehend. There won't be a big fireworks display the moment it happens, more of a creeping realisation I think.
I give it 5 years +/-2.