(Geopolitical) prediction markets almost always tend to overreact. This is expec... | Hacker News

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William_BB 5 months ago | parent | context | favorite | on: Two insider cases we've recently closed

(Geopolitical) prediction markets almost always tend to overreact. This is expected from retail, so I'm not sure about the signal.

echoangle 5 months ago [–]

So why not just always bet against their reaction? Over time you should make money then, right?

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