I probably shouldn't have posted that link because it doesn't provide any evidence for my claim. It should be seen as something separate for discussion, and I agree with your refutation of Searle's claims... no one said anything when I posted that paper a week ago. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43996
My belief that consciousness uploads will come before AI doesn't have much of a basis (or any basis) in fact. My intuition tells me that reverse engineering the human brain is easier than making a recursively self-improving AI.
My claim comes because I have the atheist's fear of my own mortality and I have to cling to my faith. I also like telling myself that my ancient, infinitely dimensional consciousness is choosing to live out a life in a computer simulation as a successful entrepreneur living through the peak of American civilization.
So there you go. My claim is completely irrational, which means you can't refute it! :)
Oh ok. :) But as a thought experiment, let's warp back in time 150 years. Some random guy you're talking to at the local pub claims that within 50 years, man will build a heavier-than-air flying machine. Would you intuitively predict that this is going to happen? Or would your intuition suggest that we'd have to wait until we can build a mechanical replica of a bird? What if someone said that within 150 years you'd have a little machine you could hold in your hand that could bring up all of the world's information, and let you talk to anyone on the planet in real time?
Human intuitions are great for hunting, gathering berries, navigating social situations, and other situations present in the ancestral environment, but evolution hasn't tuned us to be able to predict the future with our intuition. Just how bad are the cognitive biases employed by humans? Pretty bad: http://www.singinst.org/Biases.pdf
Anyway, not trying to pick a fight here -- I appreciate your reply above. Hope you enjoy that video.
My belief that consciousness uploads will come before AI doesn't have much of a basis (or any basis) in fact. My intuition tells me that reverse engineering the human brain is easier than making a recursively self-improving AI.
My claim comes because I have the atheist's fear of my own mortality and I have to cling to my faith. I also like telling myself that my ancient, infinitely dimensional consciousness is choosing to live out a life in a computer simulation as a successful entrepreneur living through the peak of American civilization.
So there you go. My claim is completely irrational, which means you can't refute it! :)
I'm going to watch that video now.