Those are estimates. Notice they didn’t assume 0% or a million %. They chose numbers that are a plausible approximation of the true unknown values, also known as an estimate.

If Morgan Stanley are willing to stake their credibility on an assumption I'm going to take that assumption seriously.

This is pretty silly thing to say. Investment banks suffer zero reputational damage when their analysts get this sort of thing wrong. They don’t even have to care about accuracy because there will never be a way to even check this number, if anyone even wanted to go back and rate their assumptions, which also never happens.

Fair enough. I was looking for a shortcut way of saying "I find this guess credible", see also: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46126597

Calling this unmotivated assumption an "estimate" is just plain lying though, regardless of the faith uou have in the source of the assumption.

I've seen a bunch of other estimates / claims of a %50-60 margin for Anthropic on serving. This was just the first one I found a credible-looking link I could drop into this discussion.

The best one is from the Information, but they're behind a paywall so not useful to link to. https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-projects-7...

Cope detected. Classification code: ANT