Tesla was dead in the water when it became obvious that they couldn't make a sub-$30K car happen. They will still probably do well as a luxury brand, but China is going to fill in the demand for affordable EVs in the rest of the world outside USA/EU.
I have an electric cargo bike. During a kids party yesterday I ran 5 different errands with it while someone with a car managed to get stuck in traffic, not find a parking spot, and miss the whole thing.
The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.
I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.
> The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.
You have seen a motorbikes/mopeds, scooters and micro-cars surely?
An electric bike is essentially a moped which have existed for like 70-80 years now? A small cars have been around since the 1950s.
Cars are the shape they are because normally you want the option of carrying 1-5 people. 5 people is 2 adults and 3 children. BTW cars in the past were much smaller. Compare the size of any car from the 1930-40s in the UK to a modern European car and you will notice it is much smaller they are.
I own three electric motorcycles and respectfully disagree. You can't make tube and canvas that let a passenger survive getting t-boned by a Yukon Denali or an F-250. One high-profile accident with a mother and her child getting peeled off the road with a coal shovel are all it'll take to kill such a form factor forever.
The problem isn't the form factor you're describing, it's that you can't put those on the road with 1000+ horsepower machines that are 50 times heavier. And on top of that, a lot of people just don't want to give up their heated massage seats and connected infotainment and removable third row or whatever crap they pack in minivans these days.
The elements of the form factor implied here are already on the road. Series hybrid bikes exist today. Fully faired bikes exist today. A fully feared tricycle recumbent could get you to work, clean and dry, on a dimes worth of energy. Cities like Barcelona and Taipei that already move on gas scooters, would smell immensely better if e-bikes took over.
American pick up trucks with their butch looking front ends that kill a lot of children are a stupid idea under any circumstances. But evidently we have to live with that death and destruction until they rust out. Kids are already dying because of the stupidity and we have not got what it takes to stop it. It means other places will benefit from better mobility sooner.
A fully feared tricycle recumbent will get you killed in a city with poor bike-ability. I have friends that have been in the hospital for weeks because of bike accidents in SF and NYC, which are arguably the exact kinds of places where you'd want bikes to replace cars. But instead, we have "Vision Zero" projects that still have staggeringly far to go.
I don't disagree with you: it would be great if we could replace more cars with bikes, but the reality is that there's almost nothing serious we can do in the US to undo the omnipresence of massive vehicles in most cities.
> The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.
Nope, the Smart existed for quite a while. Safety standards made cars slightly bigger (e.g. the new Renault Twingo is bigger than the original), but modern American "cars" are massive because that's what marketing has convinced Americans it's what they need. American vehicle manufacturers are pretty terrible at everything, and efficiency standards nudge them that way anyways, so making massive cars with high margins is a good deal for them.
In Europe there are SUVs, but the average car is a VW Golf or a Renault Clio sized. They are pretty decently sized, good visibility, can fit a family of 4, etc. Yeah, you can't haul a 50 ton campervan offroading up to Kilimanjaro, sure, but that's not what 99% of car trips are for.
> I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.
> that's what marketing has convinced Americans it's what they need
Is there some kind of objective analysis which supports this claim? It seems more likely that people vote with their wallet, and bigger wins out a lot of the time. It's hardly an American manufacturer thing, either, Japanese cars have reliably gotten bigger year after year as well.
> Is there some kind of objective analysis which supports this claim
It's a bit hard to have objective research on marketing and public perceptions. But how else do you explain all the marketing in that regard, and the fact that Americans, on average, even urbanites, keep buying massive pickup trucks, the majority of which are never used for anything more than a commuter vehicle for 1, maybe 2 occupants? Even in rich countries with very outdoorsy people (Switzerland, Nordics, hell, the Netherlands has camping as a national sport, and during summertime they do mass migrations in towed campers and campervans towards the south of France, Italy, Spain), very few people buy trucks.
Marketing, an arms race, manufacturers not offering much else because their marketing works, Americans being very aspirational about what they'll do with their vehicles, idk.
> It's hardly an American manufacturer thing, either, Japanese cars have reliably gotten bigger year after year as well.
Japanese vehicles in the US or everywhere? Cars in general have been getting bigger because of safety features, but American monstrosities with lower visibility than literal tanks are an almost uniquely American phenomenon (slowly invading the rest of the world too).
Well, as someone who owns an F-150 Lightning, I have to tell you that my choice had zero to do with marketing. Does Ford even market this thing? Heck, even the regular F-150 doesn't seem like it gets a special amount of marketing, these days everyone already knows all about them and doesn't need to be told whether they want one or not.
What you may be missing is that the vast, vast majority of Americans do not live in an urban core where owning a full size pickup is a chore. If you have the space, then a modern half-ton crew cab pickup basically checks all the boxes. The interior is enormous, comfy for passengers, it can haul nasty dirty things in the bed, tow, etc. And my Lightning has a huge frunk for even more capacity. As a family vehicle it's pretty dang useful. We own a sedan, too (a Model 3) and it's fine, but far less space and not nearly as comfy.
> Japanese vehicles in the US or everywhere?
Might be just the US, but that just confirms the market is driven by consumers and not by American auto manufacturers pushing some sort of narrative. A modern Honda Civic, for example, did not become the size of an old Accord because of safety features. It's because people keep preferring something incrementally larger. There are still much smaller cars in the US that are quite safe, they just aren't as popular.
>massive pickup trucks, the majority of which are never used for anything more than a commuter vehicle for 1, maybe 2 occupants? Marketing, an arms race, manufacturers not offering much else because their marketing works, Americans being very aspirational about what they'll do with their vehicles, idk.
Not sure why you have this judgmental and holier than though "Europeans better, Americans stupid for buying trucks" stance throughout this conversation. It's not like Europeans are immune to marketing car oversizing with their affinity for SUVs which is why Volvo only makes SUVs for the past 8+ years now.
Most cars on this list, and the ones I see while living in one big European city, and regularly visiting lots of others, are not SUVs. There are plenty of them, but even then it's on the smaller side (e.g. a Renault Captur, not a Escalade 8 wheeled 65ton)
>the ones I see while living in one big European city
Except that statistics don't give a damn about what you see in your city. In 2024 54% of vehicles sold in EU are SUVs.[1] And indications point to 2025 being 57% in some months.
Which matches what I see where I live with a lot of Tesla Model Ys and BYD SUVs. Plus, Volvo only makes SUVs, which should tell you why SUVs are becoming majority.
Also matches the purchases I see amongst my acquaintances where their wives push for bigger cars for perceived safety of their family so they all got SUVs.
>it's on the smaller side (e.g. a Renault Captur, not a Escalade 8 wheeled 65ton)
Now you're moving the goalposts to what a SUV is. A Renault Captur is still classified as a SUV, which is what I was talking about. Don't try to spin this around just because European SUVs are smaller than US ones.
> A Renault Captur is still classified as a SUV, which is what I was talking about
It can be classified as a fighter jet, it's still a moderately sized vehicle and it's barely bigger than the Renault Clio it's based on. It's a compact SUV. Almost none of the negative points of Americans style massive SUVs or trucks apply to it - it has good visibility, doesn't have a flat front to mow down pedestrians, doesn't weigh double what it should, doesn't consume absurd amounts of fuel.
So my original points, that the average cars in Europe are drastically smaller than their American counterparts, even when they're SUVs, still stands and is even confirmed by your source.
And the fact that Volvo decided to only do SUVs, while having a sister brand for EVs (Polestar), is pretty irrelevant.
The original comment was that the cars are Clio/Golf sized instead of SUV-sized.
You countered that SUVs and crossovers are outselling other categories, but subcompact crossover SUVs like the Captur, Yaris Cross, 2008/3008, etc are, in fact, Clio/Golf sized.
So whatever statistics you're considering, if you're going just based on "type contains SUV" without considering size, then you're missing the actual important part.
If you're going based on your link's content, it also says:
"Compact SUVs (C-SUVs) were the most popular type within the category, accounting for 42% of total SUV registrations last year, followed by smaller models (B-SUVs), with 36% market share."
So that means that about a third (64% of the 54% number you're quoting) of vehicles sold are SUVs larger than the Clio/Golf size they mentioned.
And since this whole sub thread started based on a comment about vehicle sizes, it's not "moving the goalposts" to talk about the actual size of the vehicles being sold.
Of course, one could argue "it's SUV sized if it has SUV in the class name (regardless of compact or subcompact)" but I think that would be willfully sidestepping the point.
But surely the problem with the final paragraph is the transition? Assuming the old style of vehicle remains on the road, then my lightweight one is at risk of being crushed. Only a niche minority would choose that (as a cargo bike owner, I'm also one, but I recognise most are not, with good reason.)
Unless we built a whole separate infrastructure.... We already see a lot of electric scooters using cycle lanes.
This isn't correct. There were ICE mini and micro cars. It's just not popular in some countries like the US or Canada, but wildly popular in some (mainly Asia).
Nowadays there are electric micro cars too, like Citroën Ami. I believe Renault has sth too, and the Chinese brands too. They are cheap, often cheaper than an electric cargo bike!
This is a bit out of touch with reality, presumably you don't have a car and seemingly are against any normal sized cars or bigger. A very narrow use case should change the world we all live in?
Tiny cars can't do longer distances (aka higher speeds) safely, physics of car collisions won't let you. They have been around for quite some time and popularity is as it is. If you are hit by 50kmh car as a cyclist (seems like frustration/fear of yours thats behind your words), whether car weights 600kg or 1300kg doesn't make much difference to your resulting state. Personal cars have specced brakes according to their weight so breaking distance is cca same regardless of weight.
Where I live (also went through kids birthday party today back & forth few times) - somebody with ebike would freeze their ass in windchill of fast moving bicycle would be below -10C (situation 5 months of a year), slip on partially frozen road could be fatal, moving around on rather narrow roads that have very little room for anybody but cars (Switzerland here but no high altitude) would be literal playing russian roulette with rest of traffic, triple that with wide cargo ebike. Alas, all parents came to the party in forest hut just above our village in their ICE or hybrid cars.
Tesla got far enough for Musk to have the power he wanted and then gave up innovating and expanding. China will win the race, they have a third of global manufacturing capacity and already sell as many NEVs (battery electric and plug in hybrids) domestically as are sold in the US every year, while continuing to scale.
What, has it been a decade of HN’ers calling for imminent demise of Tesla. Meanwhile I’ve been laughing and buying all the way to the bank. Keep on doubting.
