> Why should we believe that it will be society, that has improved itself so, that will be its own undoing?
Because we learn lessons from history.
Every "empire" that has improved humanity's standard of living throughout the centuries has met the same result, and it's no accident. There are such clear patterns throughout history that anyone who has taken the time to study it can make some pretty reasonable predictions about the world tomorrow.
For starters, the past 100 years included two world wars, and countless others - costing the lives of countless millions. If we continue the historical trend - this century will see at least a billion killed in wars. Is it worth it for the progress, or better standard of living people 'might' have in 100 years time - only for them to repeat the mistakes over again.
While today, the greatest number of people might have the highest standard of living that they've ever had - it must be realized that it's no coincidence that this is not shared between everyone. The developed world enjoys a high standard of living today largely because it has taken advantage of countries which don't have the same standard. We've raped and pillaged nations, and supported countries which still engage in slavery - for our own economic benefit.
Technology could bring a high standard of living for everyone on the planet - but not with our current capitalist system, which uses technology to transfer more wealth from the poor to the rich. Consider the ongoing trend to replace manual labour with robotics to get an idea - human labour is becoming obsolete, yet there is nothing to replace it. Humans still need to "earn" to eat, yet they can no longer earn - and they don't own any land - thus, we are becoming enslaved to those who do own land, and those who have the robotics to manufacture goods.
And lets not forget that our political systems are becoming more and more irrelevant. We are still using systems from hundreds of years ago, which didn't account for an idea like the internet - where people can communicate so effectively, that voting on people to represent you elsewhere is unnecessary. The increasing police state is a reaction by those in power to try and remain relevant, but their obsolescence is about due.
> the past 100 years included two world wars, and countless others - costing the lives of countless millions. If we continue the historical trend - this century will see at least a billion killed in wars.
You could just as easily say we had two world wars start within 30 years of each other in the early 1900's but it's been over 70 years since the last one started. If we continue the historical trend, this century will see no more than a few million killed in wars. You can always cherry-pick. Look up Steven Pinker, who is convinced that global violence is the lowest it's ever been...
> not with our current capitalist system, which uses technology to transfer more wealth from the poor to the rich.
There's an enormous growing middle class in Asia and Africa that begs to differ. Some think the rising global demand for oil will lead to collapse; I don't, but the main reason that demand is rising so much is because hundreds of millions around the world are now rich enough to own cars.
> You could just as easily say, 1900-1950 had two world wars and hundreds(?) of millions of death, 1950-2000 had zero world wars and many fewer deaths. If we continue the historical trend, this century will see no more than a few million killed in wars. You can always cherry-pick. Look up Steven Pinker, who is convinced that global violence is the lowest it's ever been...
While deaths in wars post 1950 might be much smaller, it's still far from insignificant. Are we content that millions of lives are disposable?
It's possibly worth pointing out that of the post 1950 wars, a significant portion of them have been perpetrated by the US and it's allies, who have not yet been held to account for their crimes.
> There's an enormous growing middle class in Asia and Africa that begs to differ...
Don't just look what's happening, but ask why. The growing middle class in Asia is due to the demand created by our outsourcing of manufacturing to there, along with the growing Asian based industries. They're given more opportunities to work. Not coincidentally, this coincides with the growing unemployment and poverty in the US and Europe. It's more economical to hire Asian labour than western labour.
But with the improvements in the physical and cognitive capabilities of computers/robots, it won't be long before that huge demand that brought work to Asia is replaced by machines. Where then are those Asians going to find employment?
> Are we content that millions of lives are disposable?
Red herring. Can't we be discontented with imperfection while still rejoicing in the progress of hundreds of millions of fewer people being killed by war?
> The growing middle class in Asia is due to the demand created by our outsourcing of manufacturing to there.
There are definitely connections, but if it was a zero-sum game with US and Europe, I would expect global oil demand (for instance) to stay the same and just shift, not greatly increase as it has. This suggests a real increase in wealth; capitalism is not zero-sum. However, I don't know what the future of robots means for it all...
This is a great post. I would love for some country to be founded on a direct representation concept and just let people directly vote for what they want instead of voting for a person who will tell you want you want to hear and then go do what gives them the most money/power. I can't see a way for it to happen though.
Because we learn lessons from history.
Every "empire" that has improved humanity's standard of living throughout the centuries has met the same result, and it's no accident. There are such clear patterns throughout history that anyone who has taken the time to study it can make some pretty reasonable predictions about the world tomorrow.
For starters, the past 100 years included two world wars, and countless others - costing the lives of countless millions. If we continue the historical trend - this century will see at least a billion killed in wars. Is it worth it for the progress, or better standard of living people 'might' have in 100 years time - only for them to repeat the mistakes over again.
While today, the greatest number of people might have the highest standard of living that they've ever had - it must be realized that it's no coincidence that this is not shared between everyone. The developed world enjoys a high standard of living today largely because it has taken advantage of countries which don't have the same standard. We've raped and pillaged nations, and supported countries which still engage in slavery - for our own economic benefit.
Technology could bring a high standard of living for everyone on the planet - but not with our current capitalist system, which uses technology to transfer more wealth from the poor to the rich. Consider the ongoing trend to replace manual labour with robotics to get an idea - human labour is becoming obsolete, yet there is nothing to replace it. Humans still need to "earn" to eat, yet they can no longer earn - and they don't own any land - thus, we are becoming enslaved to those who do own land, and those who have the robotics to manufacture goods.
And lets not forget that our political systems are becoming more and more irrelevant. We are still using systems from hundreds of years ago, which didn't account for an idea like the internet - where people can communicate so effectively, that voting on people to represent you elsewhere is unnecessary. The increasing police state is a reaction by those in power to try and remain relevant, but their obsolescence is about due.