Blue Origin just launched two 550kg probes to Mars (1.5 AU from the Sun).
SpaceX sent a similar mass Tesla Roadster on a Mars-crossing trajectory in 2018, Psyche to an asteroid at around 3 AU in 2023, and Europa Clipper to Jupiter/Europa (5.2 AU) in 2024.
It would be a waste of time to develop right now, if it isn't on starship it would be a dead end in terms of progress. So they are better off just waiting until starship can be sent.
Blue Origin has not sent a rocket to mars in the sense that SpaceX wishes to send Starships to mars. They have sent a probe. SpaceX has launched probes to far further celestial bodies than Mars.
Anyone who is paying attention knows that Starship is mostly going to be a launch vehicle for Starlink. It's very unlikely that the upper stage will ever support external payloads.
Why wouldn't they make it for external payload if they get the cost per kg lower than F9?
Running starship only is going to be cheaper than running both rockets, except if the economics of starship are worse (in which case, it would not be used for starlink either).
... but alone. We don't want some Expanse-like scenario down the line with fascist part of mankind completely unhinged. Once he is over then colonize all you want.
12% odds for 3 years seems fairly resonable for a manned landing.
Your statement of "Starship will never go to Mars. It's very unlikely it will go to the Moon" which sounds like it includes even unmanned test landnings is a quite different beast.
There are more possible bets on manifold, you do you.
I'm not really a betting man, but given the HLS budget is spent and most of technology is not nearly developed I'd say even an unmanned Moon landing is at least 5 years and $10 billion away and Mars is pure fantasy.
What does that mean? Starship is basically self-funded by SpaceX and the amount of money they got for the HLS contract is something they blew way past even before the contract, that doesn't make much sense.
