Anecdotally, I've run a bunch of traceroutes and reverse traceroutes to different locations and they tend to follow the same AS paths — although sometimes the traceroute will surface more routing through your ISP (especially from college networks). In general you are correct, though, and I would love to explain more about hot-potato vs. cold-potato (and other interesting routing decisions) in the future. Either way, the results the reverse traceroute provides are good enough for the purposes of explaining the internet, IMO!