I think everyone is underestimating the advancements in wafer tech and server compute over the last decade. Easy to miss when it’s out of sight out of mind but this isn’t going anywhere but up.

The current SOTA is going to pale in comparison to what we have 10 years from now.

> I think everyone is underestimating the advancements in wafer tech and server compute over the last decade.

What advancements?

We have done a fabulous job at lowering power consumption while exponentially increasing density of cores and to a lesser extent transistors.

Delivering power to data centers was becoming a problem 20 ish years ago. Today Power density and heat generation are off the charts. Most data center owners are lowering per rack system density to deal with the "problem".

There are literal projects pushing not only water cooling but refrigerant in the rack systems, in an attempt to get cooling to keep up with everything else.

The dot com boom and then Web 2.0 were fueled by Mores law, by Clock doubling and then the initial wave of core density. We have run out of all of those tricks. The new steps that were putting out have increased core densities but not lowered costs (because yields have been abysmal). Look at Nvidia's latests cores, They simply are not that much better in terms of real performance when compared to previous generations. If the 60 series shows the same slack gains then hardware isnt going to come along to bail out AI --- that continues to demand MORE compute cycles (tokens on thinking anyone) rather than less with each generation.