The counterfactual is that the investment required was beyond what even IBM could consider to spend at the time, to the point that even with "guaranteed buyer" in form of military procurement there was strong opposition towards going into "niche computer business".

Military/government procurement provided the demand for which private entities could provide, money and other resources at level that private market never managed.

Without large injection of money supply there's not much extra dollar to chase and safe investments sound like better bets.