I think rhetoric around immigration is functionally a Motte and Bailey game. Many of our most productive immigrants play visa games, overstaying, working on non-working visas, etc. in fact it takes a sort of grit, daring, and entrepreneurship to play fast and loose with bloated inefficient government regulation (such as our immigration system). It is obviously easy to declare “well, my intentions were to always target just the worst ideal of immigrant” while ignoring the reality of how much immigrants— yes, even the unchecked, undocumented, unvetted ones— benefit the country as a whole…
I think we should deal in facts. We can for each immigrant estimate a net value to the nation in terms of taxes paid vs services received. Maybe they get food stamps that cost 80k but pay 90k over their lifetime here in taxes. That’s great, let them come in!
But, if you do this, you will quickly be forced to admit that many of these quasi-legal immigrants (undocumented workers?) pay in very little while drawing out much more in healthcare, education, criminal justice and other services. For any nation that can become unsustainable. At least that’s the numerate take. There’s an important “feels” take on this too. We shouldn’t just discard the “bad vibes” but should consider it alongside actual data.
We cannot for each immigrant do this estimation; that’s further bloating an already bloated visa and immigration system. You’d have legal appeals to under-estimations, etc etc. sounds like a nightmare. This is on top of economic studies that already exist that in aggregate immigrants have a good number of benefits to the economy, even when they initially need more resources invested. If you want actual data, the data is there.
“ Therefore, despite legal restrictions on benefits for legal immigrants and outright bans for unlawful immigrants, the large difference in taxes paid between native-born Americans and immigrants without high school diplomas, even those of a very young age, results in a net fiscal cost—i.e., every additional immigrant aged 18–24 without a high school diploma is expected to worsen the fiscal outlook of the United States”
Plenty to pick apart about that research institute, but the author even acknowledges major analytical flaws before arriving at their shaky conclusion:
>This report treats immigrants as individuals in order to avoid treating households of married native-born and immigrant residents as half-immigrant and half-native [...] The economics literature is divided on this matter, partially because the U.S. tax unit is households, not individuals.
Some polls state otherwise, with many pointing to disillusionment with the methods and likely incarceration and deportation of immigrants that were potentially targeted improperly by the administration as a way to appear tough on immigration to achieve their goals. The net-net of these actions will leave the economy weaker and cause a net loss of population earlier than expected according to the CBO.
That was the PR line used to trick immigrants into initially supporting the cause, it's become pretty obvious with the sheer glee on social media over all immigrants being harassed and open questioning of the immigration status of anyone they don't like (see: NYC mayoral candidate Mamdani), that it's actually just about not liking anyone who doesn't look like themselves.
If it were this, we'd be doing everything possible to make the process of legal immigration less capricious. Instead we're rounding up anyone who looks foreign or speaks with an accent, ignoring even if they're here legally or following the process.
At least be honest with yourself about what's happening in front of your eyes.
Well, that's not what we have today. ICE making so many arrests at immigration court for people who showed up after they pressure the judges to dismiss the case. People with papers, married parents, and people who have been here decades are being grabbed because they are easy to get for the current administration.
