We are likely in for the biggest market crash in history. Even if LLMs are super useful and will be with us going forward, that doesn't mean they will be profitable enough to justify the spending.
Open source and last years models will be good enough for 99% of people. Very few are going to pay billions to use the absolute best model there is.
Datacenter build-outs are being financed by mega caps with fortress balance sheets and free cash flows that are coming in well above expectations. They are still able to do things like route hundreds of billions in buybacks.
And regardless of being great investments or not, all of those companies have a burning desire for accelerated depreciation to lower their effective tax rate, which data center spend offers.
The more bubbly names will likely come down to earth eventually, but the growth stock sell-off we say in '22 due to the termination of the zero interest rate environment will probably dwarf it in scale. That was a true DotCom 2.0 bubble, with vaporware EV companies with nothing more than a render worth 10 billion, fake meat worth 10 billion, web chat worth 100 billion, 10 billion dollar treadmill companies... Space tourism, LIDAR... So many of those names have literally gone down 90 to 99%. It's odd to me that we don't look at that as what it was - a true dotcom bubble 2.0. The AI related stuff looks tame in comparison to what we saw just a few years ago.
> We are likely in for the biggest market crash in history
I don't think there's the kind of systemic risk that you had in a say 2008 is there?, but I do think there is likely to be a "correction" to put it lightly.
> We are likely in for the biggest market crash in history.
This seems unlikely, because if and when the bottom falls out, it seems implausible that it will be the sort of systemic shock that the financial crisis was, much less the Great Depression. Lots of people would lose lots of money, but you wouldn't expect the same degree of contagion.
Open source and last years models will be good enough for 99% of people. Very few are going to pay billions to use the absolute best model there is.