Trump is only in office for 3 and a half years. Spending $600b will take much longer time than that. Assuming america remains democratic, the next president is very likely to wash away most of what Trump has done on day one (since he did all of this via executive order).
1. The escalated tension between the United States and China is unlikely to resolve in the next 3.5 years. Apple already took the step to move iPhone production to India. However, as recently shown, even India could be subject to tariffs as they are purchasing Russian oil and in effect funding the Ukraine war. The next president will have to operate in a multipolar world.
2. The tariffs are producing revenue for the Federal government. Hundreds of billions per year. To remove the tariffs arbitrarily in the future, a President would need to assume the political risk of increasing the national deficit.
3. Trump imposed tarriffs on his first term that Biden did not reverse. Even if the next President is a Democrat it's more likely than not that the trade deals remain in place.
4. A strong contender for the next president is the current vice president, JD Vance, who would be highly unlikely to reverse.
Trump’s approval ratings is in the gutter like it was during his last term. He doesn’t reach out and make new fans, he just loses the ones he has. JD Vance is even less popular than trump, anyone who thinks their electoral success occurs even with extra gerrymandering for the midterms is probably in for a huge surprise.
Trump didn’t initiate sweeping tariffs in his last term, and they weren’t wildly unpopular. Trump is accumulating enough bad will at the moment to make it very politically easy for someone to wash away everything if they win the 2028 election.
Approval ratings are unscientific, fleeting, and wildly variable, even among Presidents that go on to be reelected. It is a stat you take with a grain of salt, especially 6 months into a presidency. Even the polls for the actual election, which get far more money to spend, were wildly inaccurate especially in recent elections.
If Trump's moves pan out in the positive for American people over the next year or two, controversial as they may be in the present, then sentiment will increase, plain and simple.
JD Vance is quite popular among Republicans and reasonably popular among independents, which is all you need to win the presidency. The Democrats, on the other hand, have no heir apparent and have quite a few structural issues within their own party at the national level. We'll see what the actual field looks like in 2028 but that is a long ways off and a lot will change between now and then.
Vance doesn't support tariffs except in his role as Trump's agent. Absolutely nobody in politics besides Trump thinks these tariffs are a good idea. It's not clear tariffs are actually going to reduce the deficit just because they bring revenue because they are likely suppressing growth. Repealing the Trump tax cuts would be on the table for Democrats and Republicans would be happy just ignore the deficit issue again.
1. Apple moved production to India to avoid Indian tariffs so as to sell it to Indians. Initially the factory only made iphones for Indians.
2. Tariffs revenue will stabilize once they are set and revenue can easily fall.
3. Democrats are for free trade since the FDR administration, Biden was an exception not the norm for democrats.
4. JD Vance has to win first, he is not charismatic or funny like Trump.
