Gary Marcus has a dichotomy between extinction versus bad actors. I feel a third possibiltiy is much more likely: a world of extreme specialization where AI reigns supreme, and where humans are mainly button-pushers. Those at the top and who still enjoy life will be the techies who are good at and enjoy making things with AI, which will be approximately 1% of the population. The other 99% will be administrators, button-pushers, and those on UBI who have a fairly meaningless existence without much dignity.
Because once 99% of the population lose the opportunity to at least learn a skill that they are good at, and (Importantly!!) for which they have some aptitude over others, and apply it, then they will face an existence of very little meaning. Like it or not, people want to be distinguishable from others, and if everyone can do everything with AI, then that disappears.
Techies don't like to admit it because they are at the top, but through AI, they are creating their own bubble world with their little toys that will act through the immense power of AI as an oligarchy that rules the listless and depressed masses.
This is such a utilitarianistic point of view, Not everyone is defined by their work, not everyone cares about how distinguishable they are from the others, or even how the others think of them, and I would even argue, that very few oligarchs/billionaires etc belong to the group of people that truly enjoy life.
Because once 99% of the population lose the opportunity to at least learn a skill that they are good at, and (Importantly!!) for which they have some aptitude over others, and apply it, then they will face an existence of very little meaning. Like it or not, people want to be distinguishable from others, and if everyone can do everything with AI, then that disappears.
Techies don't like to admit it because they are at the top, but through AI, they are creating their own bubble world with their little toys that will act through the immense power of AI as an oligarchy that rules the listless and depressed masses.
A rather contemptible existence, in my opinion.