I saw that too and thought the utm_source=chatgpt was pretty funny, since I only noticed it when I was pasting the link into chatgpt myself to get it to tell me where the "98% accurate" claim was coming from.
Anyway, it's a pretty vague statement. What it sounds like it's saying is for the average person they can predict when they will die, and you have to decide if they mean the day, the year or the decade. But chatgpt gave me an interpretation that seems to make more sense:
> The 98 % figure is about aggregate forecasting, not clairvoyance. It means that when an insurer predicts, say, 10 000 deaths across its book in 2024, the actual count typically falls within roughly ±200. For any single customer, the prediction is still just a probability curve, not a calendar appointment with the Grim Reaper.
Anyway, it's a pretty vague statement. What it sounds like it's saying is for the average person they can predict when they will die, and you have to decide if they mean the day, the year or the decade. But chatgpt gave me an interpretation that seems to make more sense:
> The 98 % figure is about aggregate forecasting, not clairvoyance. It means that when an insurer predicts, say, 10 000 deaths across its book in 2024, the actual count typically falls within roughly ±200. For any single customer, the prediction is still just a probability curve, not a calendar appointment with the Grim Reaper.