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Put a little differently, they can predict that of your cohort (defined somehow), after June 2027, only X percent of you will still be alive.

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For mortality tables age and sex are pretty much sufficient to get to 98% accuracy.


You definitely (at least in the US) need income (or an income proxy like zip code). Mississippi has a life expectancy ~10 years less than Massachusettes.


This typically has surprisingly little impact on force of mortality.

Men under 40 essentially have incredibly low mortality. Once you exclude cars and suicide it drops basically to zero.

Even things that are very very bad for you, like being very obese (BMI>40), are factors that scale a mortality that is massively dominated by age and sex. Even 3x mortality at 25 rounds to zero. At 60 background become 1% per year and a 3x increase would make a huge difference.

I would wager $50 that there are no contiguous collection of zip codes in the USA where the average 40 year old has a higher life expectancy than the average 30 year old in any other contiguous set of zip codes assuming there are over 1000 people of that age in both.




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