The hyper car argument is really just a digression and it cuts both ways (which I think was the posters point). If you want to compare hyper car prices, you need to compare hyper gas-only to hyper hybrid. But that’s not really germane to the generalizations being used here.
Where is your 98% claim coming from? The other poster made no such claim.
The irony is there is published info on TCO from companies like Edmunds and Kelly Blue Book. We can take umbrage with some of the factors or weighting, but it’s a better starting point in real data than anything bright up so far. A claim could easily be crafted using such information that addresses everything I’ve raised (maintenance, depreciation, different designs, etc). Yet the discussion seems almost wholly based on vibes and near-ideological bias. It reads to me as conclusions searching for data instead of the other way around.
The best I can tell from that information, TCO is largely a wash. For comparable manufacturers/designs, TCO over the first 5-10 years seems to be about the same. You can pick some designs that favor one side or the other, but in general they are roughly within 10% (usually considerably less) of one another. Given the uncertainty due to the variables in question, it seems reasonable to conclude there aren’t strong conclusions on TCO differences between them.
That's the thing though, you're lumping all hybrid drivetrains in together and assuming they're all equally reliable and equally have the same TCO math, as if "hybrid" means only one thing. I've been trying to tell you, "hybrid" means a lot of different things and really shouldn't be seen as one technology, "depending on drive trains compared" and all. Which is why I made a big point of mentioning my usage of "series", which flew right over your head.
When I'm talking about a bespke battery on a low-market car, I'm not talking about some hybrid supercar. I'm talking more about the hybrid compliance car trim levels that are only really sold in small numbers in some markets, like the Ford Explorer Hybrid. You practically won't find them in most states, they were essentially only delivered to a few markets in very small numbers. Its components are far more bespoke and thus expensive to find replacements. Pretty much nobody makes remanufactured batteries for this car. It's a parallel hybrid, so it still has all the complexity and reliability of the traditional ICE drive train. This is pretty much true of a lot of "the same ICE car, but now hybrid!" They're often going to be low production models, bespoke batteries, and probably a parallel hybrid. And I agree, good chance the TCO won't work out in the hybrid's favor in the end.
Compared to something like the Prius or Maverick Hybrid or the new RAV4, which are extremely mass market. These have a much different drive train than that Explorer Hybrid, being e-CVTs. There's a big market for remanufactured batteries since there are so many more out there. Parts are considerably cheaper, and thus they have (or will probably have, the new RAV4s are still new) low TCO.
Its not fair to group the Explorer Hybrid and the Maverick together as one category of "hybrid", since they're such different designs on how they operate leading to radically different outcomes on TCO.
>you're lumping all hybrid drivetrains in together and assuming they're all equally reliable and equally have the same TCO math
I’m not though, you’re just making that assumption. For example, as “comparable manufacturers” if I select Toyota (because it has a reputation for reliability) I can compare the Prius to the Corolla (because they’re both at a similar price point in their respective categories). This “should” favor the Prius because the Corolla has a CVT (which is known to be less reliable) but TCO comes out about 8% lower for the Corolla. I’m not lumping all together, I’m deliberately trying to make reasonable comparisons.
Now I could also pick and choose to go the other way with a similar comparison. The end result seems to be that there is a distribution of differences that are reasonably close, but with enough variance to say it looks like a wash in TCO. Point being, strong conclusions may not be warranted.
>Which is why I made a big point of mentioning my usage of "series", which flew right over your head.
It did not go over my head. In fact, I brought it up in the very first post before you responded. [1] I even reminded you of that [2]. This is why I’m saying it seems like you are reflexively responding without actually reading for comprehension or clarity.
That’s fair. But looking at the numbers for my locale, the effect size is extremely small: about 0.6% cheaper. So, to piggyback on the points made earlier, if we have high variance and small effect size, we probably shouldn’t be making any strong claims. The more appropriate conclusion is that there is no difference, or not strong enough data to make a claim one way or the other.
It’s not that small of an effect size relative to the upfront price difference. Subtraction of the initial cost of the non hybrid from both numbers is very reasonable because you know what that is for both.
Also, the payback for a more expensive upfront car at year 5 on a car likely to last ~26 years doesn’t mean they are also equal for the next 21 years.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding your point, but TCO factors in the upfront cost, including financing assumptions. I can’t think of a good reason why you’d want to disregard upfront cost when calculating TCO; it’s probably the #1 determining factor for most people buying a car. (And not to belabor the point, but the original claim was about TCO).
I’m not sure I would use the 25+ life because that doesn’t reflect how long a person will keep it. The depreciation captured by the TCO is a better representation of that effect.
I’m not discarding all costs, I’m looking at the difference in upfront costs.
Suppose I’m paying cash and it’s an extra 2,000$ by my TCO drops by 0.1% over 5 years is that a worthwhile investment? Without knowing what the car costs you can’t tell.
What matters is the difference in cost vs the difference in TCO. You’re buying a car either way.
I don’t think that’s an unreasonable take, but it does move us away from the generalization that hybrid TCO is lower. It’s like instead saying “Hybrid TCO will be lower if you pay in cash and live in a high fuel cost area.”
That’s a more nuanced take by adjusting the assumptions. Sometimes adjusting them is warranted, and sometimes it’s just to game the outcome you wanted.
It doesn’t change if something lowers or increases the TCO, it only scales the impact relative to the costs.
The cash on hand bit isn’t the only take, but if you’re comparing 5 year loans and only keeping the car for 5 years then you can ignore time value of money. Suppose the monthly payment is 50$ more and you save 60$ a month, sure it’s only saving 10$/month but that’s essentially free money.
It’s becoming a tired discussion, but this has already been covered. For someone willing/capable of dropping $30k-$50k in cash, $10/mo. is certainly a small effect size. Under certain cases, hybrid TCO will be lower. For example, if you’re buying an SUV, drive a lot, pay cash, and live in a high fuel cost locale. But that shouldn’t lead to a logical leap that hybrid costs are lower in the general case. (They still may be, but nobody has shown good, generalizable data to that point.)
I said loan not paying cash. We’re comparing if the drive train is superior, and the most cost efficient new car is a car. Upgrading to a 50k SUV is inherently a different question that has little to do with the drivetrain.
> They still may be, but nobody has shown good, generalizable data to that point.
The general case of someone keeping a vehicle for 8 years and driving 15k miles per year isn’t close, as long as we’re keeping everything else the same. EX: A 2025 Ford Escape ST-Line Elite has a hybrid option for an extra 1,205$. If the base price is significantly higher than 2,000$ you’re not comparing drive trains but options.
Plug in Hybrids are a separate category dependent on your local electric prices.
> Ah, ok. I didn’t realize “series” is a specific term of art in the EV space.
You acknowledged you did not originally understand what "series" meant when I was talking about a "series hybrid". And your "reminding me" is you continuing to show you were not aware of what my usage of the word "series" meant in terms of hybrid drivetrains and instead "using it in the pure reliability domain sense". And your first comment points out you didn't get the idea that a series hybrid doesn't have a lot of the same ICE components, instead it seems you had a parallel hybrid design in mind.
> but TCO comes out about 8% lower for the Corolla
In what timeframe comparison, 5-year? How many miles? Which gas markets, is gas $3/gal or $5? What does a 10-year comparison look like? Are you including residual value on the cars after that 5-year period to see a total cost after depreciation? What does a used comparison look like? And yes, why not compare the Corolla ICE vs Corolla Hybrid, wouldn't that be a more apt comparison? One is a sedan and one is a hatch, they're different cars with different branding presence.
Looking at the numbers, drawing that out from a 5-year comparison to a 10-year comparison (or more) would probably tilt the math towards the Prius being cheaper in the end, and I'd imagine even more so at a 15-year point. But we don't actually have these numbers, and these are projections of what these cars might have in terms of TCO, not any detailed study of actual TCO.
I was being polite to the other poster so I can address the more germane claim in their reply without getting derailed by explaining why the less important point was irrelevant. The fact is the series “term of art” in the reliability domain and the hybrid engineering terminology mean the same thing. They are derived from the same concept.
The numbers come from the Edmunds site. Eg fuel cost by locality, 15k miles a year etc. You can look at the site for all their assumptions, but some of it is proprietary.
>But we don’t actually have these [TCO] numbers
Exactly! So why are you making strong conclusions in the absence of data?! This is why it comes across as if you are an ideological argument instead of a data-literate one.
“I don’t have any data, but it just makes sense to me” is not the type of curious discussion I was after.
> So why are you making strong conclusions in the absence of data?!
I'm not even making that strong of a conclusion. I'm saying "depends" and what not, because I agree it can be fuzzy and not a hard 100% rule that hybrids are cheaper TCO. But I can make some amount of conclusion because I can look at a trend line and extrapolate especially when equipped with extra knowledge about how these systems work and doing my own projections on potential repair costs at a longer interval.
A 5-year TCO evaluation on a new car generally isn't going to figure in the differences between a motor failure or a transmission failure. They won't include a HV battery failure. Depending on fuel price differences it may not even cover initial pricing disparities but could come close. But I can see a rebuilt transmission can often be $2k or more with a lot of labor, and a rebuilt transmission can still be a roll of the dice. A remanufactured battery is easier to test pack health and know the state of the device and can often be only a few hundred dollars and easy to replace.
As you mentioned, the average ownership period of a car is a little over 8 years. The average life of a car far longer than that. Three years more of gas savings on that average first owner, considerably more over the life of the car. And someone especially concerned with TCO will probably be more interested in buying used and paying cash, not having to deal with as much depreciation and finance charges, and probably have their car longer than average.
> I don’t have any data
We do have some data, we have knowledge of how these systems work, we can see trends in component prices and more can make overall projections from it. Following the trend lines from the data we have, the hybrids do usually pay off in TCO. Am I a bit just taking a gut estimate for a general state of things? Sure. But I think I've sure shared a lot of logic as to why that would probably be that way. It is not just some completely empty guess with nothing backing it at all as you seem to suggest.
98% just meant not rare, as the person referenced “rare cars” vs everything else.
I’ve already looked at that those real work TCO numbers for a bunch of cars, that’s part of why I’m saying they’re reliable and lower TCO.
But there’s a big difference between saying that on average these things break down less across all hybrids and saying every single hybrid model is more reliable.
I agree there’s a difference. The OP I originally responded to made the claim “Hybrids have a lower TCO even though they have a higher initial purchase price.” That’s a general claim, and I was seeking information that can support it. I’ve largely received strong general conclusions based on weak general evidence. When pushed, people will seem to cherry pick specific cases, which to you point, isn’t good enough to support the original general claim. Perhaps we’re looking at different data (in which case I’d be interested in understanding why you like one set over the other), but in aggregate, I couldn’t find strong evidence that supports on side or the other.
The majority of hybrids ~70% fall under these models:
Toyota RAV4 Hybrid, Toyota Highlander Hybrid, Toyota Prius, Toyota Camry Hybrid, Honda CR-V Hybrid, Ford Escape Hybrid, Ford Fusion Hybrid, and Honda Accord Hybrid which have a lower TCO than their gas’s equivalents.
I don’t think we need to consider low production edge cases, to make a statement about the general case.
We may be seeing differences in locality, but the first one I checked (Escape) did not support your claim. The gas variant was cheaper than both the hybrid (8% lower) and the plug-in hybrid (24% lower) in TCO. I think this just speaks to my previous point about variance impacting our ability to make strong general claims.
Make sure you’re comparing equal trim levels. PHEV has
18-inch wheels
Heated front seats
Heated steering wheel
Partial vinyl and cloth upholstery
13.2-inch infotainment touchscreen
Navigation system
Adaptive cruise control (adjusts speed to maintain a constant distance between the Escape and the car in front)
Lane keeping system (makes minor steering corrections to help keep the vehicle centered in its lane)
Evasive steering assistance (enhances the forward collision mitigation system with steering-based collision avoidance)
Rear parking sensors (alert you to obstacles that may not be visible behind the vehicle when parking)
Good point. After adjusting for trim level, the gas is still cheaper but not as dramatically.
If I had to guess, you may be getting numbers from a high fuel cost locale. In the end, I don’t think the conclusion that it’s largely a wash is unreasonable. There will be areas with higher cost and those with lower cost.
Where is your 98% claim coming from? The other poster made no such claim.
The irony is there is published info on TCO from companies like Edmunds and Kelly Blue Book. We can take umbrage with some of the factors or weighting, but it’s a better starting point in real data than anything bright up so far. A claim could easily be crafted using such information that addresses everything I’ve raised (maintenance, depreciation, different designs, etc). Yet the discussion seems almost wholly based on vibes and near-ideological bias. It reads to me as conclusions searching for data instead of the other way around.
The best I can tell from that information, TCO is largely a wash. For comparable manufacturers/designs, TCO over the first 5-10 years seems to be about the same. You can pick some designs that favor one side or the other, but in general they are roughly within 10% (usually considerably less) of one another. Given the uncertainty due to the variables in question, it seems reasonable to conclude there aren’t strong conclusions on TCO differences between them.