The scholarly debate is over how large and how lasting the effect is, not whether any evidence exists.

Is it not that studies show how mass incarceration increases likelihood of children to be offenders, not make them less likely to do so?

e.g., an incarcerated parent before the age of 12 increases the chances of being in jail after 18 by 230%

I genuinely don’t recall anything to support the idea that incarceration decreases crime, in general, at all…