The split between essential and incidental complexity is a really key insight for thinking about how far AI can be pushed into software development. I think it's likely the detail many developers are feeling intuitively but not able to articulate, in regards to why they won't be replaced just yet.
It's certainly how actually using AI in earnest feels, I have been doing my best to get agents like Claude to work through problems in a complex codebase defined by enormous amounts of outside business logic. This lack of ability to truly intuit the business requirements and deep context requirements means it cannot make business related code changes. But it can help with very small context code changes, ie incidental complexity unrelated to the core role of a good developer, which is translating real world requirements into a system.
But I will add that it shouldn't be underestimated how many of us are actually solving the distribution problem, not technical problems. I still would not feel confident replacing a junior with AI, the core issue being lack of self-correction. But certainly people will try, and businesses built around AI development will be real and undercut established businesses. Whether that's net good or bad will probably not matter to those who lose their jobs in the scuffle.
It's certainly how actually using AI in earnest feels, I have been doing my best to get agents like Claude to work through problems in a complex codebase defined by enormous amounts of outside business logic. This lack of ability to truly intuit the business requirements and deep context requirements means it cannot make business related code changes. But it can help with very small context code changes, ie incidental complexity unrelated to the core role of a good developer, which is translating real world requirements into a system.
But I will add that it shouldn't be underestimated how many of us are actually solving the distribution problem, not technical problems. I still would not feel confident replacing a junior with AI, the core issue being lack of self-correction. But certainly people will try, and businesses built around AI development will be real and undercut established businesses. Whether that's net good or bad will probably not matter to those who lose their jobs in the scuffle.