Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

I think GP is saying that their epistemic humility is a pretense, a pose. They do a lot of throat clearing about quantifying their certainty and error checking themselves, and then proceed to bring about very consequential outcomes anyway for absurd reasons with predictable side effects that they should have considered but didn't.





Yeah. It's not that they never express uncertainty so much as they like to express uncertainty as arbitrarily precise and convenient-looking expected value calculations which often look like far more of a rhetorical tool to justify their preferences (I've accounted for the uncertainty and even given a credence as low as 14.2% I'm still right!) than a decision making heuristic...



Consider applying for YC's Fall 2025 batch! Applications are open till Aug 4

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: