I rarely hear people talk about the fact that demand for new software will increase exponentially as cost to produce software crash. The ratios of devs_per_1k_lines_of_code_in_2022:devs_per_1k_lines_of_code_in_2028 and increase_in_demand:decrease_in_cost are unknown. But what if 1 dev could produce 300% more code, reducing eng cost (assuming same cost per hour per dev) to 1/3 of historical norms. Would that result in an increase of 20% in demand? Probably not, more like 1000%.
If that's the case, there is a large net increase in demand for experienced devs who know how to use AI for coding. Demand will go up massively, I have zero doubt of that, but will AI get so much better that unskilled MBAs are making large complex apps? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
No they aren't solved by No-Code tools. No-Code tools have become "Don't write code, just write endless configuration. And then when it doesn't do what you want, write code anyways"
Except now your code starting point is an absolute mess under the hood so it's a complete crapshoot to build out anything meaningful
and, the money to pay those new devs will just pour out like a waterfall? Some players in the ecosystem exist solely to stop payments as a cost center. Paying for work is a liability, capital expenditure and long term deals for automation are a tax writeoff. Let's be even more blunt -- slavery for labor is very profitable and makes a great economy on a large scale; taxes are healthy, production goes up, some people get very rich. Slavery for labor is a desirable economic stable point.
What does slavery for labor look like in high-skill urban setting? Rent, login credentials that are monitored, computer use is monitored, electricity is metered centrally, access to new model updates is monitored, required security updates are controlled via certificates and individual profiles, communication is by phone which is individually monitored for access patterns and location.. all very sci-fi eh?
If that's the case, there is a large net increase in demand for experienced devs who know how to use AI for coding. Demand will go up massively, I have zero doubt of that, but will AI get so much better that unskilled MBAs are making large complex apps? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯