I think this is a misunderstanding coder productivity. A 10x engineer isn't 10x faster at popping out Unit tests, that stuff is mind-numbingly boring that turns out a next token predictor can do it with ease. In fact I would guess that really "productive" software engineers, slow down considerably when forced to do this important but slow work*.
The 10x engineer is really good at deducing the next most important thing to do is and doing it quickly. This involves quickly moving past 100's of design decisions in a week to deliver something quickly. It requires you to think partly like a product manager and partly like a senior engineer but that's the game and LLM's are zero help there.
Most engineering productivity is probably locked up in this. So yes, LLM's probably help a lot, just not in the way that would show on some Jira board?
*One could claim that doing this slow work gives the brain a break to then be good at strategizing the higher order more important work. Not sure.
The 10x engineer is really good at deducing the next most important thing to do is and doing it quickly. This involves quickly moving past 100's of design decisions in a week to deliver something quickly. It requires you to think partly like a product manager and partly like a senior engineer but that's the game and LLM's are zero help there.
Most engineering productivity is probably locked up in this. So yes, LLM's probably help a lot, just not in the way that would show on some Jira board?
*One could claim that doing this slow work gives the brain a break to then be good at strategizing the higher order more important work. Not sure.