Case 1.3: No AGI, tools increase productivity a lot, you have a bigger team and you make them more productive. In the meantime, while everyone else was scared of hiring, you got a bunch of stuff done to gain a lead in the market.
You get high EV because everyone else in your market voluntarily slowing down is a gift-wrapped miracle for you.
(Even in an AGI-soon case - you spent a bit more (let's be serious here, we're not talking about spending our entire bankroll on 18months of new hires here) in short term to get ahead, then you shift people around or lay them off. Your competitors invested that money into R&D? What does that even mean if it didn't involve hiring and AGI happens soon anyway?)
----
(Case 3: AGI soon, you don't need yourself anymore - it's hard to imagine a sufficiently advanced "AGI" that someone only replaces software devs but leaves the structure, management, and MBA-trappings of modern exchange and businesses alone.)
You get high EV because everyone else in your market voluntarily slowing down is a gift-wrapped miracle for you.
(Even in an AGI-soon case - you spent a bit more (let's be serious here, we're not talking about spending our entire bankroll on 18months of new hires here) in short term to get ahead, then you shift people around or lay them off. Your competitors invested that money into R&D? What does that even mean if it didn't involve hiring and AGI happens soon anyway?)
----
(Case 3: AGI soon, you don't need yourself anymore - it's hard to imagine a sufficiently advanced "AGI" that someone only replaces software devs but leaves the structure, management, and MBA-trappings of modern exchange and businesses alone.)