With Agentic RL training and sufficient data, AI operating at the level of average senior engineers should become plausible in a couple to a few years.
Top-tier engineers who integrate a deep understanding of business and user needs into technical design will likely be safe until we get full-fledged AGI.
On the other hand I’m pretry sure you will need senior engineers not only for designing but debugging. You don’t want to hit a wall when your Agentic coder hits a bug that it just won’t fix.
There’s a recent article with experiments suggesting LLMs are better at bug fixing than coding, iirc. It’s from a company with a relevant product though.
Top-tier engineers who integrate a deep understanding of business and user needs into technical design will likely be safe until we get full-fledged AGI.