Ironically, I think the tariffs is what led to inflation not being as bad as thought, but in a roundabout manner.
Because the majority of Americans understand how tariffs work, they expected and prepared for an economic slump - which is happening. Part of that preparation involved increasing savings, which means spending had to be lessened. That's a decline in demand. A decline in demand will lead to prices lowering, or in the short-term, prices staying steady. We're seeing prices staying relatively steady.
The issue is someone in this administration is going to get the wrong takeaway from these events.
I think this administration (well Trump because I'm not sure anyone else is calling the shots) already is inclined to point at the sky being blue and declaring "the experts were wrong see" and banning iced tea for whatever reason.
Amusingly / sadly it fits a weird almost meme like internet logic where folks post "I was told that..." and they insert some absurdity to make their point seem more reasonable.
I'm semi convinced this kinda twitter / social media thinking is actually how Trump thinks. Everything is a short blurb, even just an insult, no thinking beyond that.
I'm inclined to give the guy slightly more credit. I do think that he talks off the cuff more than most politicians we are used to. I also think that he works from strategy as opposed to pre-planning everything.
This is not that I agree with everything he does. I'm saying the guy is human, impulsive, narcissistic as well as capable of being charismatic and joking. The tariff bombs were likely about negotiation from strength from the beginning.
I think most everything is from the perspective of negotiating, but it's leverage to benefit himself. I think that's the only constant. I'm not inclined to buy into the "he talks off the cuff" much anymore. Big tech bad, until it does his bidding and so on is the pattern. America first, unless he gets a real-estate deal somewhere.
"Off the cuff" is just cover for dishonesty / not answering difficult to answer questions.
Then when he is honest about taking a bribe, or sexually assaulting somebody, “oh he is just talking”.
Because the majority of Americans understand how tariffs work, they expected and prepared for an economic slump - which is happening. Part of that preparation involved increasing savings, which means spending had to be lessened. That's a decline in demand. A decline in demand will lead to prices lowering, or in the short-term, prices staying steady. We're seeing prices staying relatively steady.
The issue is someone in this administration is going to get the wrong takeaway from these events.