They are getting slapped with anti-trust right now because they gave $10M to Kamala Harris and only $1M to Trump.
That's it.
Also, the AI race is a red queen race. There is no line on the sand that says "you are the ultimate winner", that's not how time works. And given that the vast majority of the internet is on AWS, NOT GCP, and that Gemini isn't even the most popular LLM among AI developers, I'm not sure you can even say that Google is the leader at this exact point in time.
Yea, but Microsoft was slapped with anti-trust before too. These companies shrug it off.
Yea, I guess it's not really much of a race. Because they are competing for something Google already largely has.
In a few years, literally everyone is going to have the same AI and it'll become cheaper and cheaper to operate. I mean already, if you look at those leaderboards, many models are more or less the same.
Training data (legal data) is running out. The algorithms are pushing their limits. It's not unlimited. It's not the second coming of Jesus as some people believe. It's a commodity and everyone is going to have it.
So fast forward a little and think about that. The companies in the better position, the "winners," are going to be the same they always are. Those with the bigger user base and those with more data. That's Google. Yes, AWS too. Yes, Microsoft.
The reason I'm bullish on Google is I suppose not because of Gemini itself. It's because of a super power like Google having their own LLM that performs as well as any other.
I also believe OpenAI will go out of business or be acquired. They way way overspent, but they were also pioneers here a bit so they took on that burden. They over raised. That's painfully obvious after DeepSeek. They lost most of their top talent. They are being propped up because there's a LOT of money at stake. Not just for OpenAI but for other companies too. They are the face of AI so if they went belly up tomorrow then it'd start a wave of panic selling. People would think AI failed. So until some other successor steps in (Meta, Microsoft, Google, etc.), everyone including competitors will keep OpenAI on life support if need be. I don't think it helps that they foolishly bought Windsurf for $3B when you go and look at Roo Code hanging out there for free.
That's it.
Also, the AI race is a red queen race. There is no line on the sand that says "you are the ultimate winner", that's not how time works. And given that the vast majority of the internet is on AWS, NOT GCP, and that Gemini isn't even the most popular LLM among AI developers, I'm not sure you can even say that Google is the leader at this exact point in time.