And this discussion is hard because to just maintain current pension levels young people will need to be a LOT more productive (ie. work more, and keep less of the fruits of their labour) ... and if we're going to assign blame, the reason is that the pensioners refused to have enough kids. It's not really the kids' fault.
We all know what's going to happen too, in general. Some economic upheaval, some drastic event will create enormous disruption and then, finally, it will be politically acceptable to make the hard choice.
> the reason is that the pensioners refused to have enough kids
I thought they did have enough kids but that the next generation(s) need to breed faster.
In New Zealand and Australia ~30% of population were born in another country. I suspect our government will try and fix the working-age population hole by more immigration? New Zealand is building houses (necessary when increasing population by 50% through immigration). You can see both higher density and new suburban growth (replacing farmland) in my city of Christchurch.
It is silly to plan your retirement by looking at the situation right now. The economics of demographics will require grim changes. I'm sceptical of retirement funding, superannuation, and house sales. Even preppers seem like they have some sense. There's little information on potential solutions - everything is based on the presumption that decades away will be just like it is today.
> It is silly to plan your retirement by looking at the situation right now. The economics of demographics will require grim changes.
This is doom talk. Of course it isn't. One thing is for sure: you are going to be responsible for your own retirement, because superannuation is only meant to drive up house prices and will collapse along with house prices ... "eventually". It may not be clear when exactly this will happen, but of course in Australia it will have to happen near 2054 (when Australia's population growth will go into reverse until at least 2084).
Perhaps easier to say in Australia: Australia seems to be doing better than many countries so perhaps you don't recognise the problem. Japan and Italy already have some ~$0 houses due to demographics. Children from New Zealand go overseas so demographics in NZ are worse than Australia. An article[1] this morning asked:
"Have you seriously considered moving to Australia in the last year?" 37% said YES (and 40% of those have 'looked into it').
This thread is started by nly in London who clearly hasn't retired yet:
My mortgage runs until I'm 70 and I, like most owners now, are entirely dependent on the housing casino game continuing. I have to refinance every 5 years, so if rates spike I'm also screwed.
Try to ignore the bullshit in both but do attend to the facts.
I'm over a decade away from retirement in New Zealand, but all the signals I see here are pointing towards the country taxation base not being able to afford retirees in the future. I haven't considered Australia yet since I assume Oz won't escape the demographic wall, and if there is a future problem then being a kiwi in Oz could become unpleasant.
The narrative a year ago was that we should invest a good proportion of retirement savings into the US stock market. Recent events indicate that might not be an effective long term strategy.
A rental property was the traditional investment vehicle goal for many New Zealanders - but I've been becoming more sceptical about that idea (even though I've seen the past success).
I've no idea what the solution is, but I'm certain that the strategy that worked for my parents won't work for me.
Any attempt to fix the housing situation will need to provide owners, not just with housing, but with a passable income for 40+ years.
So, the actual discussion is this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=747X0M7Keyw
And this discussion is hard because to just maintain current pension levels young people will need to be a LOT more productive (ie. work more, and keep less of the fruits of their labour) ... and if we're going to assign blame, the reason is that the pensioners refused to have enough kids. It's not really the kids' fault.
We all know what's going to happen too, in general. Some economic upheaval, some drastic event will create enormous disruption and then, finally, it will be politically acceptable to make the hard choice.