No it isn’t. When people see the anti trans party winning elections they see that as permission to bully trans people. The vote directly leads to abuse.

Yes, it very much is indirect. Direct would be the "anti trans party" passing a law saying that you must bully trans people.

I'd be happy to hear your definition of direct, which somehow includes a bunch of indirect things happening.

voting for trump tells everyone in the country that you dont mind if trans people are abused. This creates a culture that is uninviting even if no one acts poorly beyond the voting. You dont have to physically abuse someone for your actions to have direct consequences

> voting for trump tells everyone in the country that you dont mind if trans people are abused

It literally does not. You can vote for Trump without ever having thought of trans people a day in your life, much less thought of "abusing" them.

Additionally and AFAIK, Trump himself has never expressed a desire to abuse trans people, according to a normal and accepted definition of "abuse".