US exports make up 11% of GDP. Of that 11%, some fraction is facing retaliatory tariffs.

Considering the DJIA went up 4,000 points from Dec then crashed 4,000 points in Jan, one should be careful assigning cause when it did it again from Jan to Mar.

A lot more than 11% of GDP relies on various imports randomly being subject to tariffs (on everything from steel and lumber to electronics). This is effecting everything from manufacturing and construction to retail.

DJIA is a garbage index that's weighted by share price instead of anything meaningful and only includes 30 companies.

It’s highly correlated with the SP500, so pretty much interchangeable.

But the point stands - the market went up, then crashed back down a month before Trump took office.

So why is the media so confident that the recent repeat of that is due to tariffs?

(hint: the answer is “they are guessing”)