- The placing of bioweapons labs and other military installations in Ukraine, intentionally provoking Putin and creating internal pressure on Putin vis a vis Russia's own military hawks.
This is literally garbage-tier Russian propaganda that has no connection to reality. We can easily test it: name one foreign military installation in Ukraine. Just one.
You won't find any, because it's just not true. These claims circulate mainly on the social media, alongside conspiracy theories about the Earth being flat and vaccines causing autism. High-quality sources offer a completely different picture than the one you've gathered from low-quality sources.
Why were prominent US policy folks so concerned about the Ukraine biolabs? Why did the US invest hundreds of millions to build dozens of labs in Ukraine?
I'll tell you what I think.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the US saw newly unemployed Soviet bioscientists as geopolitical risks under the assumption that they were actively engaged in bioweapons development under the Soviet Union and were now vulnerable to being picked up by new patrons hostile to US interests. Rather than allowing a bunch of bioweapons experts to become free agents, we built them a bunch of labs to keep them out of the hands of our enemies. What would they work on? Well, developing bioweapons is illegal, didn't you know? And the US observes all international law, didn't you know? So, instead of developing bioweapons, we'll have them develop biosafety! See how that works? But to develop biosafety we'll also need to build the unsafe things so we can build the vaccines and antidotes to the bad things. We'll never ever use those bad things, or God forbid, have bad opsec and allow them to escape one of these completely independent and in no way associated with military research labs. Never. Never. Never. That sounds like conspiracy theories. What made you even think that?
You've fallen one of the dumbest conspiracy theories. There are no facts whatsoever to support it. Russia tried to label regular scientific research as "secret bioweapon labs" and even scientists from Russia published an open letter calling these claims outright lies. If by "prominent US policy folks" you mean Tulsi Gabbard, then yes, she too fell for it and was widely criticised for lacking basic critical thinking skills. Many right-wing social media channels repeat Russian propaganda word-for-word, so people following them may not even realize where all that actually originates from.
Wikipedia has a pretty good article on this:
In March 2022, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian officials falsely claimed that public health facilities in Ukraine were "secret U.S.-funded biolabs" purportedly developing biological weapons, which was debunked as disinformation by multiple media outlets, scientific groups, and international bodies.[5] The claim was amplified by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese state media,[10] and was also promoted by followers of the QAnon conspiracy theory and subsequently supported by other far-right groups in the United States.[17]
Russian scientists, inside and outside Russia, have publicly accused the Russian government of lying about evidence for covert "bioweapons labs" in Ukraine, saying that documents presented by Russia's Defense Ministry describe pathogens collected for public health research.[18] The "bioweapons labs" claim has also been denied by the US, Ukraine, the United Nations,[12][19][4] and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.[3]
Here is noted neocon and Ukraine hawk Victoria Nuland's testimony confirming the existence biolabs in Ukraine and expressing concern for their integrity:
"I only have a minute left. Let me ask you, does Ukraine have
chemical or biological weapons?
Ms. NULAND. Ukraine has biological research facilities which, in
fact, we are now quite concerned Russian troops, Russian forces,
may be seeking to gain control of.
We are working with the Ukrainians on how they can prevent
any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Rus-
sian forces should they approach.
Senator RUBIO. I am sure you are aware that the Russian propa-
ganda groups are already putting out there all kinds of information
about how they have uncovered a plot by the Ukrainians to release
biological weapons in the country and with NATO’s coordination.
If there is a biological or chemical weapon incident or attack in-
side of Ukraine, is there any doubt in your mind that 100 percent
it would be the Russians that would be behind it?
Ms. NULAND. There is no doubt in my mind, Senator, and it is
classic Russian technique to blame on the other guy what they are
planning to do themselves."
You are simply arguing my point but seemingly unable to understand it. The point is that "biolabs" in Ukraine are inevitably conducting bioweapons research by any other name. Surely you would by now acknowledge that the Wuhan biolab was also conducting research of this kind and has been revealed to be funded by USAID via EcoHealth Alliance. This was obvious back in 2020 if you already understood how these investments work. You're 100% wrong to say no facts support it, but leaving that aside, there are standards of evidence that may not amount to the "smoking gun" proof you seem to be calling for. I don't know why such a thing is so inconceivable to some people. History is replete with examples of states doing such things under the radar. In this case, there is "a preponderance of evidence" (yes, some of it "circumstantial evidence") that Wuhan Lab was conducting what used to be called "gain of function" research. (Go ahead and quibble over meaningless distinctions, I'll wait.) The stated goal is to develop vaccines for possible zoonotic diseases. But in fact what happens is that zoonotic diseases are postulated theoretically and developed in anticipation of their appearance in the wild. In fact, these Dr. Moreaus go beyond the physically likely and create all kinds of freaks and chimeras in the lab that are, surprisingly, tailor-made to harm humans. But of course, it's all for vaccine development and biosafety. Only an idiot would accept that explanation after reviewing the network of funding and secrecy surrounding these labs. "Russian scientists...have accused..." as if I can't find you American scientists at the highest level of government who have accused such trivial plausible or even likely explanations as conspiracy theory. Turns out some of those scientists were involved in cover-ups and personal financial gains off the research. You seem very ready to condemn Russian propaganda but equally eager to accept Western propaganda. Why not maintain an equal healthy skepticism of both?
The point is that "biolabs" in Ukraine are inevitably conducting bioweapons research by any other name.
Biological research != bioweapons.
At the very least, every country that grows food has biological laboratories to monitor the health of livestock and detect outbreaks of diseases like African swine fever. I don't see how this "inevitably" means they are conducting bioweapons research. It's like accusing every car repair workshop of secretly building tanks for the international black market of weapons. You need to provide something more substantial than mere conjecture before jumping to that conclusion.
The quoted testimony doesn't support your argument either: as the snippet points out, people were concerned that Russia could release existing dangerous samples or plant something to justify their propaganda, cause an outbreak of some horrible disease, and blame Ukrainians for it. "A classic Russian technique," as Nuland called it.
And before you jump from "dangerous samples" to "a-ha! bioweapons!", let me remind you that even something as mundane as the carcass of a sick pig can be dangerous. Careless truckers caused a massive swine fever outbreak near me when they didn't insulate the trucks well enough to prevent bodily fluids from dead pigs from dripping out onto rural roads that passed farms. Any lab worth its name must have plenty of things nobody would want to see meet the kind of dumbass Russian soldiers who ransacked Chernobyl's hazardous material warehouses for anything that appeared valuable.
My arguments are made in the context of the post cold war breakup of the Soviet Union, including Ukraine. The Soviets had a program of bioweapons research. The same concerns about nuclear arms containment after 1989 applied to this program, including securing the scientists involved.
Why would the US invest $200M to build these labs in Ukraine of all places. The country is poor, corrupt, and unstable. Does that sound like the udeal place for a pathogen research lab? More like the circumstances surrounding Ukraine after the fall of the USSR chose Ukraine as the least bad option for containment and control over these programs.
My point is that defensive bioresearch is one side of a bioweapons program. You perhaps lack the scale and deployment capabilities but not the expertise with production and handling. More importantly, the specific strains of contagions the Soviets were developing before the fall are still in those labs. Presumably they would be backbones of ongoing research in Russia today. It is a vital US interest to study these pathogens. Losing access to the could be what Nuland was referring to.
Why would the US invest $200M to build these labs in Ukraine of all places. The country is poor, corrupt, and unstable. Does that sound like the udeal place for a pathogen research lab?
If you are studying drug-resistant tuberculosis or HIV, both of which have high rates in Ukraine, then yes, absolutely, such country is a key place for studying transmission patterns and treatment strategies. Ukraine has a particularly long history of tuberculosis research. Many of the earliest resorts in Crimea were originally established for tuberculosis treatment, and visited by wealthy patrons from all over Eastern Europe and Russia. Russian literary classics from the 19th and early 20th century often reference this.
Ukraine is also one of the largest grain producers in the world, which makes them a top destination for research in grain diseases, disease-resistant varieties and pest control. Due to Chernobyl's legacy, they unfortunately excel in cancer research too, and the US has funded many long-term studies related to the nuclear disaster.
Speculating "what if they're actually developing bioweapons" is not much of an argument unless you can back it up with actual evidence.
My arguments don't preclude "legitimate research." Nor do I claim there is only a single reductive reason for something. I'm struck by recent revelations about the Wuhan lab and the kinds of research that are conducted via less vigilant regulatory environments. That coupled with the legacy of a Soviet bioweapons program that included Ukraine labs makes me think less charitably than you do. But, as you say. It's probably completely above board. It's Ukraine, after all, the epitome of law and order.
Ukraine has a significant legacy in other areas too. The Yuzhmash factory in Dnipro used to manufacture some of the best Soviet nuclear missiles, but that alone does not mean that Ukraine still has a nuclear weapons program. Instead, they are now a subcontractor for commercial space rockets. Their parts have been used by SpaceX and others.
Most of the USSR's legacy was completely dismantled across the former Soviet Union. People were fired, facilities were closed and demolished, and machinery was sold for scrap metal, because everything was ridiculously outdated and couldn't compete on the global market. Places like Yuzhmash that survived by successfully pivoting to something commercially viable are a fairly rare exception. In farming equipment, for example, the USSR was so far behind that almost nothing survived, and Ukrainian farmers nowadays use John Deers and New Hollands and Claases and Deutz-Fahrs.
So, there's nothing surprising about the dismantling of the Soviet bioweapons program. It was a tiny and insignificant part of the far greater disruptions that the country went through. That's why the US got involved at all - to ensure an organized shutdown, because the domestic authorities were busy with massive poverty, crime and other far more pressing issues.
Yes, as you say, an organized shutdown. That is my belief as well. I also believe that national security considerations were a factor and dominance of Ukraine was a policy goal of the West to permanently sever Russia from its Eastern European confederates. This was not secret strategy. It's what any sensible policy would include given the chaos. Power abhors a vacuum. I don't see the controversy. I suppose you would also claim that research at Wuhan has nothing whatsoever to do with bioweapons research. Or perhaps that its research program was independently funded, not by the US government.
Do you have any actual evidence? So far, you have offered only conjecture.
This seems to be a common trait among people who are into conspiracy theories: they take the mere fact that they can construct a remotely plausible scenario as proof that it is the truth and actually happened.
I'm not sure what evidence could convince someone so dead set against the legitimacy of conjecture. I'm one (along with Aristotle and others) who credits inference to the best explanation as a valid form of reasoning. You seem more interested in hurling "conspiracy theory" ad hominem attacks than taking a few minutes to learn some history and consider whether what I'm speculating is merely "remotely plausible" or rather "quite likely." If you lack the time or imagination to do some research, accept the following "actual evidence."
Here is a GAO National Security report to Congress on the topic. I strongly encourage you to read the entire document yourself here https://www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-00-138.pdf
But first, I'll call your attention to the rank of the people involved in this report. It's not some backbencher vanity project. I hope you'll agree that these aren't "conspiracy theorists". If you bother to read it, of course. I hope you will and admit that your beliefs about this "conspiracy theory" need upgrading.
I'll quote liberally from the GAO report below but this is just one example of many documents available (if you merely look) that should meet a reasonable standard of evidence. For instance you could read the lucid book BioHazard by a former deputy director of the Soviet bioweapons program. He talks about biodefense and vaccine programs (among other things) in the context of the bioweapons arms race, and the billions of dollars allocated by the US to "biodefense". If you think all that money is going to crop management I've got a bridge to sell you.
https://www.nlm.nih.gov/nichsr/esmallpox/biohazard_alibek.pd...
Here you go. If you come back to insist that none of this means that the labs are developing bioweapons "per se" I refer you back to the report's urgent observations that it is very difficult to distinguish legitimate biodefense programs from bioweapons programs (as I have been arguing). If you still can't accept that the US "biodefense program" is the rebranded "bioweapons program", I can't help you with that cognitive bias.
-----------
"April 28, 2000
The Honorable Floyd Spence
Chairman
The Honorable Ike Skelton
Ranking Minority Member
Committee on Armed Services
House of Representatives
The Honorable Pat Roberts
Chairman, Subcommittee on Emerging
Threats and Capabilities
Committee on Armed Services
United States Senate
Although it signed the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, 1 the
former Soviet Union covertly developed the world’s largest offensive
biological weapons program, which relied on a network of military and
nonmilitary scientific institutes, according to a January 2000 Department of
Defense report to Congress. 2 Many of these nonmilitary institutes were
overseen by Biopreparat—an ostensibly civilian pharmaceutical enterprise
that exploited the inherent dual-use nature of biotechnology to mask Soviet
development of biological weapons using specially engineered strains of
dangerous pathogens, including anthrax, plague, and smallpox. Russia
renounced the Soviet program in 1992 and subsequently cut funding for
Biopreparat institutes; nonetheless, the United States remains concerned
about the extent of Russia’s compliance with the Convention. Reasons for
concern include Biopreparat’s retention of its Cold War leadership and
existing ties to former Soviet nonmilitary biological weapons institutes in
Russia, although Biopreparat no longer funds them. Although Russia has
generally allowed the United States access to its nonmilitary institutes that
receive U.S. nonproliferation assistance, Russia has consistently rebuffed U.S. efforts to inspect its military institutes currently managed by the
Ministry of Defense.
Notwithstanding these concerns, in 1994 the United States began funding
collaborative research projects with former Soviet biological weapons
scientists 3 because it feared that these scientists might be driven by
financial pressures to sell their skills to countries of proliferation concern
or to terrorist groups. 4 The executive branch initially funded this effort at
modest levels and used it to redirect scientists to peaceful activities;
however, it is now expanding the program’s size and scope. Because of this
shift, you asked us to review U.S. efforts to address the threat of biological
weapons proliferation from the former Soviet Union. Accordingly, we
examined
• the potential threats that the former Soviet biological weapons institutes
could pose to the United States,
• current and future U.S. efforts to address these threats, and
• risks associated with the expanded U.S. effort and executive branch
plans to mitigate them."
It goes on:
"The former Soviet Union’s biological weapons institutes continue to
threaten U.S. national security because they have key assets that are both
dangerous and vulnerable to misuse, according to State and Defense
Department officials. These assets include as many as 15,000 underpaid
scientists and researchers, specialized facilities and equipment (albeit
often in a deteriorated condition), and large collections of dangerous
biological pathogens. These assets could harm the United States if hostile
countries or groups were to hire the institutes or biological weapons
scientists to conduct weapons-related work. Also of concern is the
potential sale of dangerous pathogens to terrorist groups or countries of
proliferation concern. State and Defense officials told us that since 1997,
Iran and other countries have intensified their efforts to acquire biological
weapons expertise and materials from former Soviet biological weapons
institutes. In addition, deteriorated physical safety and security conditions
could leave dangerous pathogens vulnerable to theft or distribution into the
local environment. Finally, much of the former Soviet biological weapons
program’s infrastructure, such as buildings and equipment, still exists
primarily in Russia. While most of these components have legitimate
biotechnological applications, they also harbor the potential for renewed
production of offensive biological agents.
The U.S. strategy for addressing these proliferation threats at the source
has been to fund collaborative research activities with the institutes to
(1) reduce their incentives to work with hostile states and groups and
(2) increase their openness to the West.
While the executive branch initially
implemented this strategy with a modest level of funding, it is now seeking
a tenfold increase in funding in response to intensified proliferation
attempts by Iran and other countries of proliferation concern. The
increased funding will support an expanded array of collaborative
activities, including biodefense research 5 against biological agents,
security upgrades to select facilities, and dismantlement of unneeded
facilities.
• For fiscal years 1994 through 1999, the United States allocated about
$20 million, primarily from the Departments of State, Defense, and
Energy, to fund collaborative research projects to help redirect former
biological weapons scientists to peaceful research activities. Key program benefits during this period included providing grants to fund
more than 2,200 former Soviet biological weapons personnel—including
more than 745 senior biological weapons scientists—and gaining some
access to more than 30 of about 50 nonmilitary institutes. State and
Defense officials told us that the U.S. programs have denied
proliferators such as Iran access to biological weapons expertise and
scientists at over 15 former Soviet biological weapons institutes.
• For fiscal years 2000 through 2004, the executive branch plans to spend
about $220 million to expand its efforts to engage former Soviet
biological weapons institutes. About half of these funds will be used to
continue efforts to redirect scientists toward peaceful civilian research.
• In an emerging area of emphasis, Defense and State plan to spend about
$36 million to fund collaborative research with Russian institutes on
dangerous pathogens. This research is intended to improve the U.S.
defenses against biological weapons threats. The Department of
Defense also plans to spend (1) $40 million to upgrade security and
safety systems at select facilities in Russia and (2) $39 million to
consolidate and dismantle biological weapons facilities in Russia as it
has done in Kazakhstan—if Russia agrees."
You won't find any, because it's just not true. These claims circulate mainly on the social media, alongside conspiracy theories about the Earth being flat and vaccines causing autism. High-quality sources offer a completely different picture than the one you've gathered from low-quality sources.